EcoWeek

Record new infection numbers globally

Eco week 21-17 // 3 May 2021  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
8
ECONOMIC PULSE  
RECORD NEW INFECTION NUMBERS GLOBALLY  
The Covid-19 pandemic continues to set records, with 825,721 new in the UK, Japan and Spain. In Italy, the indicator has risen recently  
infections recorded on 28 April alone. Much of this surge has (chart 3). Caution is however needed in interpreting this indicator, pro-  
occurred in India, where there were 349,378 new cases, or 42% of the duced by the OECD on the basis of data from Google Trends (searches  
global total, whilst in the rest of Asia, Europe and the Americas we relating to consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity  
have seen a fall in the number of new cases over the past few days and economic uncertainty), on account of base effects stemming from  
(
chart 1). Meanwhile, vaccination campaigns continue to gain ground the comparison with the beginning of the pandemic a year ago  
but significant differences remain (chart 2). Some 9% of the Indian  
population has received at least one vaccine dose since the campaign  
began in January. This figure remains very low relative to the current  
surge in the pandemic in the country. The United States will supply  
India with the components needed for vaccine production and will step  
up its financial support, joining the effort by European countries to  
head off a further acceleration in case numbers. In the European Union,  
Tarik Rharrab  
the rate of vaccination continues to speed up and has now passed the *Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different  
threshold of 20% of the population having received at least one dose.  
places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for  
In United Kingdom, the vaccination campaign has allowed a relaxation the corresponding day of the week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6,  
of restrictions, with a visible effect on footfall to retail and leisure fa- 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared  
th  
cilities. It has increased strongly between April 11 (just before restric-  
to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks with the most  
recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it  
takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-  
day moving average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source:  
Google.  
th  
tion measures were relaxed) and April 23 , going from -48.7% to -30%  
from baseline*. In Germany, Belgium and France, where restrictions are  
still in force, footfall continues to rise slowly. In Japan, we have seen a  
downward trend following the tightening of restrictions. Moreover, we  
can also see differences in terms of the OECD Weekly Tracker of annual  
GDP growth for the main advanced economies. In Germany, Belgium,  
France and the US, it has continued to fall, whereas it has stabilised  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (28 April)  
Change in pp between 21 March and 20 April [RHS]  
India  
Asia excl. India  
Europe  
America  
Africa  
6
6
5
0
18  
Change in pp between 29 March and 28 April [RHS]  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
1
6
55  
5
4
0
5
14  
1
1
8
6
4
2
0
2
0
40  
35  
30  
25  
20  
15  
10  
5
0
5
0000  
0
0
1/20  
04/20  
07/20  
10/20  
01/21  
04/21  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (04/29/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (04/29/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 21-17 // 3 May 2021  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
9
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/y GDP growth [RHS]  
United States  
20  
France  
2
1
0
0
0
20  
0
20  
1
1
5
0
5
0
15  
10  
5
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
-
-
-
5
10  
15  
0
-5  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
-
25  
30  
-100  
-35  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Germany  
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Italy  
2
1
0
0
0
15  
20  
0
30  
1
5
0
0
20  
10  
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
60  
70  
80  
-
20  
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
-40  
-
-
-
5
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-
-
60  
80  
10  
15  
-20  
-100  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Spain  
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Belgium  
2
0
30  
20  
0
15  
1
5
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-5  
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
-
-
-
10  
15  
20  
-
100  
-40  
-25  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
United Kingdom  
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
Japan  
2
0
0
20  
20  
15  
10  
5
1
1
5
0
5
0
1
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
0
-5  
-5  
-
-
-
-
10  
15  
20  
25  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
100  
-30  
-50  
01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
0
1/20 04/20 07/20 10/20 01/21 04/21  
SOURCE: OECD (04/27/2021), GOOGLE (04/27/2021), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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