Zambia’s recent sovereign default has cast a shadow of a looming wave of debt restructuring in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Covid shock has brought a significant risk of debt distress in several African countries, by exacerbating vulnerabilities that have built up over the past decade. While liquidity facilities through the DSSI and emergency lines have provided temporary support to many countries in the region, solvency issues remain and the prospect of debt restructuring is gaining ground. In this context, the methodology of the IMF and the World Bank remains the most suitable tool for assessing debt sustainability for low-income countries. The framework for common treatment of restructuring has recently been extended to all creditors
The economy has rebounded strongly since July, driven by the recovery in industry, which then spread to the services sector starting in October. Although the recovery still seems to be fragile, the central bank has raised its growth forecast for fiscal year 2020/2021 to -7.5%. Fiscal year 2021/2022 is expected to see a major automatic rebound in growth. Lacking the means to support growth through a fiscal stimulus package, the government has set out to create a more propitious environment for investment that would enable medium-term growth to return to a pace of about 7%. The latest reforms are working in this direction. Yet passing reform measures does not guarantee that they will be implemented, much less that they will be successful.
Malaysia is one of the emerging Asian countries hit hardest by the Covid-19 crisis. Although a recovery is underway, it is bound to be hampered by new lockdowns in Q4 2020 and January 2021. Public finances have deteriorated sharply, but the government does not seem inclined to pursue fiscal consolidation. It is giving priority to the economic recovery and support for the most fragile households. The public debt ratio will continue to deteriorate, and in December, the rating agency Fitch downgraded Malaysia’s sovereign rating. Yet refinancing risks are moderate: the debt structure is not very risky and the country has a large domestic bond market. Malaysia will continue to report a current account surplus and has a solid banking sector.
In the draft 2021 budget, the French government predicts budget deficits of 10.2% of GDP in 2020 followed by 6.7% in 2021 (from a deficit of 3% in 2019). The government debt to GDP ratio is expected to rise by nearly 20 points, to 117.5%, in 2020, before dropping slightly, to 116.2%, in 2021. These unusual figures bear the traces of the massive recessionary shock in the first half of 2020 caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the similarly massive fiscal response as the government has sought both to lessen the impact of the crisis and to support the recovery. And the numbers are still climbing, as a result of the second wave of the epidemic this autumn. When it comes to supporting the recovery, the France Relance plan makes EUR100 billion available over the next two years
New mortgage lending fell by 33% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, the steepest decline since 2008. British lenders have been more cautious since the beginning of the year. This is evidenced by the decrease of 4.0 percentage points (pp) in the share of loans with a loan to value (LTV) figure in excess of 75%; the bulk of this concerns loans with an LTV between 75% and 90% (-3.2 pp). To tackle this trend, and with Nationwide’s property price index continuing to rise, the UK government plans to boost home ownership by encouraging loans with an LTV of up to 95%
The Brazilian economy is gradually migrating towards a new macroeconomic equilibrium whereby the private sector is gaining a larger role in the allocation of resources. This transition is the result of a changing conception of the role of the state but also stems out of a necessity to consolidate fiscal accounts. The nature of the fiscal adjustment however has had knock-on effects on both public and private investment, with adverse consequences on the recovery and medium-term growth prospects. The recent disruption to the economy resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic has also reset the deck with regards to the outlook for corporate investment and potential output
This document presents the budgetary and monetary measures taken in several countries as well as the EU and the eurozone to address the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is presented in such a way that it facilitates an international comparison.
The Covid-19 shock has triggered a significant fiscal policy response by European Union member states. Even though it is likely to be short-lived, the 2020 recession will be historic. The fiscal response has therefore been essential in avoiding much more serious and longer-lasting economic consequences. Member states have not all been affected in the same way by the current crisis, and the scale of their fiscal responses varies. The European response has been one of the few positive aspects of the crisis. However, the challenges are not yet over. Levels of risk and uncertainty on both the public health and economic fronts will remain particularly high over the next few months
Major economic policy responses have been introduced to try to attenuate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy. This document reviews the key measures taken by central banks and governments in a large number of countries as well as those taken by international organisations. It includes measures that were introduced through 15 June. It will be updated regularly.
Following the judgment of the German Constitutional Court on 5 May, the ECB Governing Council needs to demonstrate that the monetary policy objectives of its PSPP are not disproportionate to the economic and fiscal policy effects resulting from the programme. In most cases, monetary, economic and fiscal policies are mutually reinforcing. When assessing whether monetary policy is appropriate, one should take into account the stance of economic and fiscal policy. The necessity to have adequate transmission to all jurisdictions as well as the likelihood and extent of tail risks due to insufficient policy action also play a role in the assessment.
In the coming decades, the European countries will be confronted with rising costs related to population ageing. Based on very optimistic assumptions, simulations carried out by the EU’s Economic Policy Committee suggest that these costs are manageable. Persons that enter the workforce now are unlikely to retire under the same conditions as those who retire at the moment. The transition to leaner public pension schemes calls for accompanying measures such as incentives to remain longer in the labour force and inducements to better prepare retirement. In particular, the authorities could inform employees regularly about their pension rights and encourage them to increase their retirement savings.
Major economic policy responses have been introduced to try to attenuate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy. This document reviews the key measures taken by central banks and governments in a large number of countries as well as those taken by international organisations. It includes measures that were introduced through 20 April. It will be updated regularly.
Major economic policy responses have been introduced to try to attenuate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the economy. This document reviews the key measures taken by central banks and governments in a large number of countries as well as those taken by international organisations. It includes measures that were introduced through 10 April. It will be updated regularly.
