Several central bankers have recently insisted that the ‘last mile’ in the marathon towards the inflation target may be the most challenging. After an initial swift decline of headline inflation on the back of favourable base effects due to lower energy prices, further disinflation may take more time. Corporate pricing power, inflation expectations and wage growth play a key role in this respect. By insisting on the ‘last mile’, central bankers probably want to avoid sounding too optimistic on disinflation. Otherwise, financial markets might price in early rate cuts, which would cause an easing of financial conditions in capital markets that would neutralize part of the monetary tightening
Updated GDP, inflation, interest and exchange rates data.
The significant rise in American households’ mortgage rates prompted a depletion of housing inventories on the existing real estate market. This “freezing” situation on the existing home segment enabled some demand redirection towards newly built houses.
Monetary policy desynchronization between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has become huge. This has caused a significant weakening of the yen. Higher US yields have also exerted upward pressure on JGB yields, which in turn has forced a gradual adjustment of the BoJ yield curve control policy (YCC). Inflation developments in Japan increase the likelihood of a policy rate increase but policy normalization is a delicate task for domestic reasons as well as international spillovers. The BoJ has chosen a cautious approach, with very incremental steps, but in the meantime the yen has continued to weaken, creating the risk of a snapback once policy is tightened. Acting sooner rather than later seems to be the recommended route for the BoJ.
GDP growth, inflation, interest rates and exchange rates
Data on GDP, inflation, interest and exchanges rates.
Nigeria’s economy is fragile. Despite the rise in oil prices in 2021 and 2022, macroeconomic stability has continued to deteriorate. This is due to the low level of oil production, an artificially overvalued exchange rate and the surge in energy subsidies. Without a change in economic policy, the situation was only going to get worse. The new President, Bola Tinubu, decided to act quickly and decisively. Shortly after taking office in May, he announced the flexibilization of the exchange rate system and the end of energy subsidies. Unsurprisingly, the first measure fuelled inflation, which is expected to come close to 30% by the end of the year. More problematic is the fact that we are once again seeing a gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel exchange rate
The September data show that disinflation continues in the Eurozone. Moreover, this development is broad-based and for more than half of the HICP items, 3-month inflation is below the ECB’s target expressed on an equivalent basis. This increases the likelihood that the decline in inflation continues to spread through the Eurozone economy. However, despite the progress, inflation remains well above target. This implies that, if going forward monthly core inflation would correspond to the ECB’s target (expressed as a monthly number), it would still take until September next year for it to get back to 2% in terms of annual inflation
In Q3 2023, Chinese economic growth rebounded to +1.3% quarter-on-quarter, after a very poor +0.5% in the previous quarter. It stood at +4.9% year-on-year (y/y) compared to +6.3% in Q2 2023, but this slowdown is due to unfavourable base effects in Q3. Chinese economic growth reached 5.2% year-on-year over the first three quarters of 2023.
Economic surveys in September are sending out mixed signals. Consumer confidence is falling in most countries, which in some cases (France, Spain) underlines a slight rise in inflation. This loss of confidence is also accompanied, in general, by a decline in purchasing intentions for durable goods, which can be linked to high interest rates and an expectation of a moderate downturn on the labour market. Lower consumer demand is affecting companies' order books, with an impact that varies according to sector. In industry, economic surveys are more affected, while in services, activity remains dynamic in the US and Japan, while being more modest in Europe.
The inflation situation, in the Eurozone, is cooling. Added to this good news is the surprising continued drop in the unemployment rate (6.4% in August compared with 6.7% at the beginning of the year). But these positive developments are offset by a cooling also being seen in the European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI). Given the weakness of confidence surveys, real GDP growth – only just positive in Q1 and Q2 2023 (+0.1% q/q each quarter) – is expected to be close to zero. We expect nil growth in both Q3 and Q4 2023, a forecast aligned with our nowcast estimate, also at zero.
German inflation resumed its downward trend, after stabilising between May and August (6.4% y/y in August according to the harmonised index), to reach 4.3% in September, due, firstly, to base effects (seasonally adjusted inflation was 2.3% m/m in September 2022, compared to a more normal 0.3% in September 2023). We expect a further drop in inflation of nearly 1 pp in October for the same reason (+1.1% m/m in September 2022 1 pp above the average for October over the last 15 years). Underlying inflation also fell to 4.8% y/y in September after a high of 6.3% in August 2023
The hierarchy has changed: French inflation, which was well below inflation in the eurozone, is now higher (5.7% in September compared to 4.3% y/y, according to the harmonised index). On average, French inflation even exceeded its June-July level by nearly 0.5 points in August-September (compared to a drop of 0.6 points in the euro zone). This was due to the rebound in energy prices, which was stronger in France, particularly with the increase in the regulated electricity tariff in August 2023 (+10%). Conversely, the drop in underlying inflation continued (3.6% y/y in September compared to 4.3% in July). This is mainly due to stabilisation of the (seasonally adjusted) index for manufactured goods prices between April and September.
Household confidence has dropped slightly since April. This reflects a decline in purchasing intentions for durable goods and a deterioration in the outlook for unemployment. Nevertheless, the Italian labour market remains on track. Unemployment fell to 7.3% in August, its lowest rate in fifteen years. As a result of this drop, recruitment problems are intensifying: the proportion of companies citing labour shortages as a factor limiting production was, in Q2 2023, the largest seen since the early 1990s. Although the working population is far from having closed the gap between the levels seen in 2019 (the deficit was 1.3% in August compared to the peak in April 2019), employment has continued to rise very significantly. This has helped to raise the employment rate (to 61
In September, the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator fell to its lowest level of the year in Spain. This reflects a slowdown in activity which, according to our forecasts, will result in a slowdown in growth to 0.3% q/q in Q3 and 0.2% q/q in Q4. Inflation is also regaining ground and is again weighing on household confidence, as is the modest deterioration in the unemployment expectations index. It should be noted that the outlook for price developments differs quite significantly depending on the sector, according to the European Commission’s survey: it indicates a new pullback in price pressures in construction (-1.9 pts) and industry (-1.6 pts, the lowest since January 2021), while an upturn is observed in services (+3
Business climate has marginally weakened in September in the United States due to diverging developments in the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing sectors. The latter has slowed to 53.6 (-0.9pp) in the ISM survey, torn between a vigorous activity (‘Business Activity’ component standing at 58.8) and a large drop in ‘New Orders’ (51.8, -6.7pp). On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing index rose for a third month in a row and reached 49.0 (+1.4pp), thereby reaching a 10-month high despite remaining in the contraction area.
The UK labour market has reached a tipping point. For the Bank of England (BoE), in addition to the slowdown in the housing market, this is a further indication of the wider transmission of the rise in interest rates to the real economy. The ONS labour market report for September was postponed until October 24th. Nevertheless, data from the HMRC indicated an 8,360 drop in employees last month; this is the second consecutive monthly fall and a steeper decline than in the previous month (-5,071). Furthermore, the PMI employment indices fell sharply in September, pulled down by services (-3.3 points to 47.9), which slipped below the rate of expansion for the first time since the beginning of the year.
Japanese economic surveys are sending out mixed signals. On the positive side, the business condition index from the Tankan survey improved from 8 in Q2 to 10 in Q3, driven by services: business confidence in the sector was the highest since 1991. The PMI for services is also proving resilient. Although down 0.5 points in September, it remains in expansionary territory at 53.8. Conversely, the manufacturing PMI fell further into the contraction zone for the fourth consecutive month (-1 point to 48.5). As a result, the composite PMI dipped to 52.1 in September. The Economy Watchers Survey dropped from 3.7 points to 49.9 points in September.
In the US, economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, increased slightly in September, after four months of decline. The economic policy uncertainty, based on media coverage, increased slightly after four months of decline. In the Eurozone, the European Commission’s economic uncertainty index also moved upwards in September.
Growth in emerging countries held up quite well in H1 2023, thanks to countries in Asia, Brazil and Mexico. In Asia, inflation returned to very moderate levels in August or September (with the exception of India) and, compared to other areas, monetary tightening between mid-2021 and mid-2023 was on a much smaller scale. This helped offset the drop in exports. However, Central European countries did not benefit from this offset effect. Business and household surveys indicate that disparities between areas became more pronounced over the summer. These surveys also show that the heavyweights in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico) are better positioned within the major EM regions.
After some hesitation, the Chinese authorities finally stepped up their stimulus measures over the summer. The recent slight upturn in economic growth is set to continue in Q4 2023. However, action by the central bank and the government remains constrained, cautious and measured, while internal and external obstacles to economic activity are still powerful. In the real estate sector, even if activity stabilises in the short term thanks to support measures, it is likely to remain hampered by the financial fragility of developers and weak buyer sentiment. In the export sector, enterprises are affected by the slowdown in global demand and US-China tensions, while multinationals are starting to rethink their production strategies.
The Hong Kong economy is struggling to recover from the series of shocks experienced between 2019 and 2022. Following political and institutional upheavals in 2019 and 2020, the territory was severely affected by the health crisis up until last year. In 2023, activity is recovering, but Hong Kong is now facing the weakening in external demand and, above all, significant tightening of monetary conditions. The rise in interest rates since March 2022 has impacted domestic demand, particularly through its effects on the property market. Fiscal policy, meanwhile, remains resolutely expansionary.
In Q2 2023, Indian economic growth remained solid. But since the summer, the situation has deteriorated slightly. In addition to the contraction in exports, rural demand is slowing. Inflation has rebounded and downward pressures on the rupee have increased slightly due to the sharp slowdown in capital inflows. External accounts are expected to remain under pressure until the end of the year. The sharp rise in oil prices and a below-normal monsoon are weighing on the trade deficit and fuelling inflationary pressures. In addition, the narrowing yield spread between Indian and US government bonds is limiting portfolio investment. So far, the banking sector has weathered the rise in interest rates well
