Our nowcast for the ongoing third quarter has Belgian growth at slightly below trend. Household consumption hasn’t accelerated much, while typical-election year dynamics inflate government spending. Gross fixed capital formation, dominated by firm investment, remains positive but the underlying trend is worrying. Belgian manufacturers seem especially far from a return to normal, while the spectre of fiscal tightening looms.
The presentation of the budget on 30 October will be the first real test for Rachel Reeves. The deteriorating situation of the public accounts and the September 2022 mini-budget crisis, which is on everyone's minds, are leaving the Chancellor of the Exchequer with little room for manoeuvre. UK growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2024 (+0.3% quarter-on-quarter). The two policy rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) that we expect in 2024 (August and November) would enable growth to come close to its potential level during this year and in 2025.
Less than 2 years after spiking to decades highs, inflation is back in the neighbourhood of central bank targets in most of the world. Yet it is too soon to declare victory, as there are still cross currents for economic policy-makers to navigate. As they have earned a good track record of it, and room to act, the year-ahead baseline scenario is fairly benign for both advanced economies and emerging markets, with gradually easing financial conditions (from lower interest rates and a likely weaker US dollar) allowing activity to stabilize around trend growth.
GDP growth, inflation, exchange and interest rates.
The September FOMC meeting kick-started the Fed’s easing cycle with a significant 50bps cut in the Federal Funds Target Rate, leaving it at +4.75% - +5.0%. Unusually, this large step was taken even as the US economy remains strong, and explicitly with a view to keeping it so. Effectively, macroeconomic conditions having induced a shift in the Fed’s priorities towards the ‘maximum employment’ component of its dual mandate, while still not declaring mission accomplished on the inflation side
GDP growth, inflation, interest and exchange rates.
We expect September 17-18 FOMC Meeting to result in a 25bps decrease in the Federal Funds Target Rate to 5.0% - 5.25% - barring a huge surprise. This move will launch the beginning of an easing cycle for monetary policy. The combination of improved data and outlook for inflation and the ‘unmistakable’ softening of the labour market leads to a shift in the Fed’s priorities, paving the way for rate cuts. A few thoughts beyond the direction change:
The household savings rate in France has risen further, up from 17.6% of households' gross disposable income (GDI) in Q1 2024 to 17.9% in Q2 2024, according to the INSEE, i.e. 1 point more in a year. This is also an early sign of an upward trend underway in the Eurozone. While the figures for Q2 are not yet available, the Q1 figures pointed to a savings rate 3 points higher than its pre-COVID level (at 15.4%).
While the date of the Fed's first rate cut is now foreseeable (it will be at the FOMC on 17-18 September), everything else remains uncertain: the size of the cut, as well as the overall extent of the easing cycle and the timing of the cuts. Developments on the US labour market are key in this calibration. In terms of inflation, significant progress has been made regarding the return to price stability on both sides of the Atlantic, but the battle is far from won. This calls for caution in the monetary easing that is beginning
In August 2024, French inflation is expected to fall back below 2% year-on-year for the first time in three years (August 2021). This disinflation is mainly linked to energy prices and is expected to increase further at the start of 2025 for the same reasons (expected drop in electricity prices). By contrast, inflation in services, which has been impacted by an Olympic effect in particular, is expected to remain high in the short term, but will not prevent further disinflation.
While recent economic data across the board suggest that growth was strong in Q2, leading indicators (business climate, household confidence) were more mixed in June, pointing to a more difficult Q3. This is particularly the case in the US, where even the ISM non-manufacturing index deteriorated sharply in June, while in Japan and the UK, growth should return to a more normal level after a very favourable Q2 (and benefiting from rebound effects in Japan, after a more difficult Q1).
The difficulties in the Eurozone manufacturing sector are intensifying. Industrial production fell again in May, by -0.6% m/m (-0.8% m/m for the manufacturing index). The deterioration in the PMI indicators for the euro area in June does not bode well for Q3, with a fall in the manufacturing index (-1.5 points to 45.8) and a decline in all the subcomponents (production, employment, new orders, stocks of purchases, delivery times). The input price index (which is not included in the calculation of the aggregate manufacturing index) is back above the expansion zone for the first time since February 2023. This is consistent with the trend in producer prices, for which the monthly decline has been slowing for several months and is now close to zero
The French economy is once again feeling the weight of economic uncertainty, as shown by the rebound in the Banque de France's uncertainty indicator, which in July reached its highest level since autumn 2022 (energy crisis). This could weaken a business climate that is already a little less favourable in France (composite PMI at 48.8 in June) than in the eurozone (PMI above 50 for the past four months).
Italian inflation stabilised below the 1% mark in June (at 0.9% y/y) due to the still significant deflation in the energy component (-8.6% y/y), and the slowdown in food prices (2.1% y/y in May; -1.8 pp over three months). Although the producer price index is still negative year-on-year (-3.5% in May), it is beginning to strengthen on a monthly basis (+0.3% m/m), suggesting that the disinflationary phase in consumer prices could be reversed over the coming months.
Expectations in terms of growth for Q2 remain favourable: we expect it to be +0.6% q/q compared to +0.5% q/q for the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. However, several elements suggest a more difficult Q3. The ISM surveys in June returned a negative signal: mixed for the manufacturing component, which deteriorated marginally, to 48.5 (-0.2 points), against a backdrop of falling production (48.5, -1.7 points), more marked for the non-manufacturing index, which fell to 48.8 (-5.0 points), against a backdrop of a correction in activity (49.6, -11.6 points), and a deterioration in new orders (47.3, -6.8 points). The NFIB (Small Business Optimism Index) again rose only slightly in June (91.5, +1
The rise in activity is welcome news for the recently elected Labour Party. According to the ONS, the monthly figures for real GDP (or, to be more precise, real value added) show that UK activity rose by 0.4% m/m in May, following a levelling-off in April. Although the manufacturing sector (+0.4% m/m) and construction (+1.9% m/m) were more supportive of growth than services (+0.3% m/m) in May, it is the latter that have been driving activity over the past year, with a rebound in transport and logistics (+7.3% y/y) and a clear acceleration in ‘professional, scientific and technical’ activities (+4.1% y/y).
Japan's economic growth should benefit from a technical upturn in Q2: we expect growth of 0.5% q/q after the contraction in Q1 (revised downwards to -0.7% q/q). The outlook remains negative – particularly for demand, despite the tax cuts introduced in June – while household consumption spending contracted by -1.8% y/y in May. Furthermore, while wage increases (excluding bonuses) reached their highest level since 1993 in May (+2.5% y/y), a sign of the growing transmission of negotiated wage increases (+5.1% y/y according to the Rengo trade union), real incomes are still not rising (-1.4% y/y).
The Moroccan economy has held up well against the consecutive shocks of recent years. The GDP losses resulting from the Covid crisis were quickly recovered and the 2023 inflationary shock has passed. With inflation dipping below 1% since the beginning of the year, compared to its peak of 10% at the start of 2023, it is no longer a source of major concern. In June, the Bank of Morocco decided to ease its monetary policy. The solid external accounts and the ongoing consolidation of public finances have also reassured the monetary authorities in their decision-making.
Poland’s economy has generally shown resilience during periods of turbulence since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. For instance, in 2009, the country was able to avoid a recession in contrast to neighbouring countries. Since 2020, successive shocks have constrained GDP growth momentum, but strong fiscal buffers enabled the authorities to implement generous supportive measures. The country remains amongst the best performing economies in the region in the early months of 2024, with its GDP above 11% in Q12024 compared to its pre-COVID levels. Overall, the country reinforced its position in Europe, judging from the increase of Poland’s economic weight in the EU (measured by GDP in purchasing power parity) and gains in market share
