eco TV Week
Emerging countries : a not so surprising recovery in portfolio investments   7/19/2019

Growth slowdown in emerging economies seems at odds with the strong rebound in portfolio investments observed since Q42018. How can we analyze this seeming conundrum ?

US: much reason to celebrate?   7/5/2019
This week saw two reasons to celebrate in the US. First, it’s 4th of July week and, second, we have started the 121th month of economic expansion, the longest in US history.
The new crypto-currency "Libra" project   6/28/2019
The new cryptocurrency project – Libra – which Facebook plans to launch in 2020 raises several questions and requires an appropriate response from the regulator.
Soft landings are difficult, even more so today   6/21/2019
The Fed has turned the corner and is now looking towards moving into easing mode.
ECB: accommodative but cautious   6/7/2019
The ECB announced an extension of its forward guidance and gave some details about the targeted longer term refinancing operations (TLTROs).
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On the Same Theme

The shadow of the debt 2/7/2019
Growth is slowing down whereas private debt has just levelled off. Is this something to worry about?
External vulnerability of emerging countries: Ten years on 9/12/2018
In emerging economies, debt of both the public and private sectors has increased over the past ten years. Asian countries, especially China, face mostly a local-currency debt problem; only Indonesia has registered a rise in its USD-denominated debt (as a percentage of GDP). In contrast, in Latin American countries, Turkey and South Africa, the USD-denominated debt of corporates has increased meaningfully. In Gulf countries, governments have had to issue debt on global bond markets to finance their deficits, which have widened following the 2014-2015 fall in oil prices. Emerging borrowers have benefited largely from the global environment of abundant liquidity and low US interest rates in the years that followed the 2008 crisis. Some countries, especially Turkey, Argentina, Chile, South Africa and Indonesia, posted the most deteriorated USD debt-to-GDP ratios at the end of the first quarter of 2018. This highlights their significant vulnerability to US monetary policy tightening and to the ongoing episode of depreciation of their currencies.
A sudden chill 5/18/2018
In recent years, emerging market issuers, in particular corporates, have raised huge amounts of USD debt, thereby increasing their sensitivity to an appreciation of the dollar. Rising US treasury yields, a sudden strengthening of the dollar and country-specific issues have triggered considerable portfolio outflows and a weakening of emerging currencies.
Weak links 5/14/2018
The IMF reports published in mid-April insist once again on the external financial vulnerability and indebtedness of the emerging and developing countries. The potential risks are highly focused on the low-income countries. But large emerging economies, Argentina, Egypt and South Africa also show many weaknesses...

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