eco TV Week
The economic consequences of the coronavirus   2/7/2020

The outbreak of the coronavirus is a textbook example of an exogenous shock. It forces a rethink of the scenario for growth for the next months by looking at the demand and the supply side effects.

Pension reform proposal in France: where do things stand?   1/31/2020
With the presentation of the pension reform proposal to the Council of Ministers on 24 January, we thought it would be an opportune moment to provide a progress report and update on some of the changes made in recent months.
Eurozone: macroeconomic outlook for 2020 and potential risks   1/24/2020
The eurozone went through a tough year in 2019. In 2020, the economic growth could stabilise, but a strong rebound seems unlikely.
The US-China trade deal: relief, for now   1/17/2020
The phase 1 trade deal signed between the US and China brings an end, at least for the time being, to several years of rising tensions.
What 2019 tells us about 2020   12/20/2019
The topics which have characterised 2019 are expected to remain very relevant in 2020: slow growth, elevated uncertainty, low inflation, low interest rates.
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On the Same Theme

ECB, Fed: Central banks redefine their strategies 2/11/2020
The European Central Bank, like the Federal Reserve in the US a few months ago, has officially launched its own strategy review at the 23 January monetary policy meeting. This is an ambitious plan. The communication in the months ahead will provide us further details regarding the goal of the review and what changes will take place.
From the CFA Franc to the Eco, a smooth transition 2/11/2020
CFA Franc of eight West-African countries will face major changes in 2020. Beyond the change of name, governance will be modified. However, fundamentals remains and several hurdles will have to be overcome before to see further reforms.   
How many swallows make a spring? 1/31/2020
Recent survey data have picked up, in particular in the manufacturing sector and in terms of export orders. The European Commission noted a marked increase of economic sentiment in the European Union, the eurozone, Germany and France in January, after substantial weakness in Q4.  Although economists expect a pick-up in growth in the US as the year progresses, the dispersion is very wide. This means that the median forecast will inspire less confidence than if the level of disagreement amongst forecasters would be lower.
Towards a slight growth pick-up 1/24/2020
In recent months, the global manufacturing cycle has been bottoming out whereas in services a slight uptick has been noted. In addition, two major sources of uncertainty have seen a positive development: the US and China signed a trade deal and the UK and the European Union can at last start negotiations about their future relationship. Very accommodative central bank policy has contributed to buoyant market sentiment. The combination of these three factors - stabilisation of business sentiment, decline in uncertainty, supportive financial environment - implies conditions are met to see some uptick in growth. Nevertheless, caution prevails in this assessment, if only because later on this year, uncertainty may very well increase again.
The year starts with a reprieve 1/24/2020
In 2019, economic growth slowed to 6.1%. Total exports contracted and domestic demand continued to weaken. The year 2020 is getting off to a better start as activity shows a few signs of recovering and a preliminary trade agreement was just signed with the United States. Yet economic growth prospects are still looking downbeat in 2020. The rebalancing of China’s growth sources is proving to be a long and hard process, and economic policy is increasingly complex to manage. Faced with this situation, Beijing might decide to give new impetus to the structural reform process, the only solution that will maintain the newfound optimism and boost economic prospects in the medium term.
The US-China trade deal: relief, for now 1/17/2020
The phase 1 trade deal signed between the US and China brings an end, at least for the time being, to several years of rising tensions.
Markets and geopolitical uncertainty: (ir)rational complacency? 1/10/2020
There is a considerable gap between what are considered to be the geopolitical ramifications of the escalating tensions between the US and Iran since the start of the year and the subdued reaction of markets. The market reaction probably reflects the investors’ view that the probability-weighted impact on growth should be very limited because the risk of a major escalation is considered to be small and/or because of an expectation that the impact of higher oil prices on the economy is limited. What also may play a role in the market reaction thus far is that, leaving the geopolitical uncertainty aside, the economic environment is considered to be conducive to taking risk: stabilisation of survey data, reduction in trade-related uncertainty and accommodative monetary policy.
Sustainable and inclusive growth: the role of cities 12/23/2019
Cities today concentrate more than half of the world population and more than 80% of global GDP. The underlying dynamics explaining their ever increasing importance are the result of a variety of positive externalities (thicker labor markets, knowledge spillovers, input sharing…) generating self-reinforcing effects. These rapid waves of urbanization have key implications for the production of goods and services, environmental quality and human development. The world is one of density spikes and disparities, driven by the unstoppable ascendance of metropolises. Greener and more inclusive cities should be promoted in order for them to remain livable. In this respect, public policies have an important role to play
2019: a difficult year, ending on a hopeful note 12/20/2019
2019 has been dominated by uncertainty, in particular about trade tensions and hard Brexit risk, as well as mounting concern about the slowdown of the global economy. his has led to additional policy easing by the ECB whereas the Federal Reserve has reversed course by cutting the federal funds rate on several occasions. This has further reduced the remaining policy leeway of central banks, a subject that will be analysed in the context of the strategic reviews by the Fed and the ECB. It has also led to increased calls for fiscal stimulus. Equity markets have delivered surprisingly strong returns with investors preferring to look at the role of lower interest rates, rather than at the weakening of the profits outlook. The year ended on a hopeful note with the improvement of certain business surveys.

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