Despite the war in Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the temporary surge in energy prices, emerging economies have so far avoided a crisis scenario [...]
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Panoramas as of 13 July 2026: a severe shock with varying effects in the North Africa/Middle East region; heightened fragilities in Sub-Saharan Africa; Latin America less exposed to the energy shock; Asia with strengths to face the energy crisis. [...]
China’s economic growth continues to be characterised by a significant disparity between the robust performance of the export sector and the fragility of sectors that rely on domestic demand [...]
South Korea is one of the countries most exposed to the global energy shock, yet it also reaps substantial benefits from soaring demand for artificial intelligence-related products [...]
India is currently in a stronger position than it was in 2022 to cope with the new energy shock. The fiscal capacity to support the economy has increased, and inflation is more contained. Although a slowdown is anticipated (from 7 [...]
Indonesia is facing two external shocks: rising energy prices and capital outflows. The decline in governance quality has indeed impacted foreign investor confidence [...]
Despite the energy shock, Poland’s economic growth is expected to remain robust and could even accelerate slightly in 2026 [...]
Recent political tensions are once again drawing attention to Romania. The next government’s priority will be to further consolidate public finances; otherwise, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to deteriorate [...]
Turkish growth has slowed significantly since Q4 2025, and the oil shock since March has led to a significant erosion of foreign exchange reserves, a more pronounced depreciation in the lira than in other emerging-market currencies, and pressure on domestic bond yields. The risk of disruptions to hydrocarbon and fertilizer supplies is limited. However, the revision of official inflation forecasts, the subsequent tightening of monetary policy, and warnings of the finance minister about potential budget slippage have dampened investor sentiment, which is further unsettled by the AKP’s strategy of systematically sidelining potential rivals in the presidential elections. There are often recurring financial tensions in Türkiye. However, the risk of economic destabilization is low given the government’s moderate debt levels and the strength of the banking system. The slowdown is even beneficial, as it will help to limit the current account deficit and should help the central bank in curbing expectations of inflation and rebuilding its foreign exchange reserves. [...]
The Brazilian economy continues to withstand an ultra-restrictive monetary policy stance [...]
The presidential election on 21 June 2026 was won by Abelardo de la Espriella, an outsider who distances himself from the traditional figures of the Colombian right [...]
Mexico’s economic outlook remains modest. It is characterised by a slowdown in private consumption and investment still held back by uncertainty and a lack of new infrastructure projects [...]
Saudi Arabia may not be the Gulf economy most vulnerable to the conflict in Iran, but it is by no means unaffected. This year’s growth forecasts have been significantly downgraded due to the decline in oil production [...]
The impact of the war in Iran and the energy crisis on the Egyptian economy are currently limited. The economy has benefited from macroeconomic fundamentals strengthened by international support and the increased credibility of its economic policy [...]
