The first quarter turned out to be strong after all. The just released (not yet shown on the chart) first estimate for first quarter GDP showed an annualised quarter over quarter increase of 3.2%, ahead of the consensus number of +2.3% and better than the previous quarter (+2.2%). Data released earlier this month had suggested that March looked good though not great. Retail sales, job creation and the ISM index for the manufacturing sector were better than expected. On the other hand, the Consumer Board consumer confidence index, the non-manufacturing ISM index and industrial production came in below the consensus. This also applies to the two measures of core inflation, which are also below the long-term average. The first quarter core PCE was only 1.3% so these data allow the FOMC to be patient before contemplating any move in its policy rate.
Index United States
