Eco Week
Economic Pulse

Uncertainty: at a peak ?


We monitor uncertainty by means of different metrics. Starting top left and moving clockwise, the economic policy uncertainty index, which is based on media coverage, is at a historical high, on the back of US-China trade tensions and fears about a disorderly Brexit. The recent trade deal between the US and China, although of a very limited scope, and the agreement between the UK government and the European Union on Brexit, have fuelled hope that uncertainty will abate in the near term. This obviously remains to be seen. Uncertainty of companies in Germany is still increasing whereas it has eased a bit in the US. The geopolitical risk index, again based on media coverage, is on a rising longer-term trend. Moreover, it has rebounded as of late. Uncertainty based on individual share price performance remains low although in the US the trend is up. This could reflect growing unease about the outlook despite an accommodative monetary environment.

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