EcoWeek

New Covid-19 case numbers continue to stabilise in Europe

Eco week 22-14 // 4 April 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
9
ECONOMIC PULSE  
NEW COVID-19 CASE NUMBERS CONTINUE TO STABILISE IN EUROPE  
After a week of stabilisation, global Covid-19 case numbers have started to fall again. 11 million new cases were recorded between 24 and 30  
March, a 9% drop on the previous week. In more general terms, the number of new cases has continued to fall in North and South America, whilst  
Asia saw its first fall in case numbers after two months of near-continuous increases. In Europe, by contrast, the situation was stable for the  
second week in a row, whilst there was a small rise, of 4%, in Africa (chart 1). Meanwhile, 65% of the world’s population has now received at least  
one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (chart 2).  
Over the same period, visits to retail and leisure facilities are still on an upward trend in Japan while declining in Spain. In the other countries  
(
France, Germany, Belgium Italy, the US and UK) the indicator is stabilising (chart 3, blue line).  
Lastly, the trend in the weekly proxy indicator of GDP has remained very positive in France, Germany, the US and UK, whilst in Spain it was stable  
compared to the previous two data points. In Italy and Japan, the most recent data points appear to suggest a slight downturn (chart 3, black line).  
This indicator is produced by the OECD on the basis of data from Google Trends for searches relating to consumption, the labour and property  
markets, industrial activity and uncertainty. The OECD calculates the indicator over a moving two-year period in order to avoid the comparison  
basis effect that would result from a comparison with 2020 data.  
Tarik Rharrab  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the  
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks  
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving  
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (30 March 2022)  
Change in pp between 1 and 30 March 2022 [RHS]  
Change in pp between 21 February and 23 March 2022 [RHS]  
Africa  
600000  
Asia  
Europe  
South America  
North America  
1
1
1
1
1
00  
15  
9
8
7
6
5
0
0
0
0
0
400000  
200000  
000000  
1
5
0
0
8
6
4
2
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
40  
3
2
0
0
10  
0
0
1/20  
06/20  
11/20  
04/21  
09/21  
02/22  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (03/31/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (03/31/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
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Eco week 22-14 // 4 April 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
0
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*) OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
── Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
─── OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
United Kingdom  
United States  
2
0
0
40  
30  
20  
2
0
0
0
25  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
1
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
100  
1
0
0
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
-
-
-
-10  
-
-5  
-
-20  
-
-10  
-
-30  
-
-15  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Germany  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
France  
2
0
30  
20  
30  
25  
20  
15  
10  
5
0
-5  
-10  
-15  
-20  
1
0
0
20  
0
-
-
10  
20  
-30  
40  
50  
60  
70  
-80  
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
100  
10  
-
0
-
-
-
-
-
-10  
-20  
-30  
-
-
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Italy  
Spain  
2
0
40  
20  
30  
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
20  
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
100  
-20  
-40  
10  
-
0
-
-60  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-10  
-
-80  
-20  
-
-30  
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Japan  
2
0
25  
20  
15  
10  
5
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
1
0
0
0
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
100  
-
10  
20  
-30  
40  
-50  
0
-
-
-5  
-
5
-
-
10  
15  
20  
-25  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
-
-
-
-
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
SOURCE: OECD (03/31/2022), GOOGLE (03/31/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-14 // 4 April 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
1
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY  
Daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7-day moving average)  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)[RHS]  
── Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 (7-day moving average) ─── Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*) [RHS]  
United States  
United Kingdom  
9
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
200000  
180000  
10  
0
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1
0
0
1
60000  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-80  
-90  
140000  
1
1
20000  
00000  
-10  
-20  
8
0000  
60000  
0000  
-
30  
40  
-50  
4
-
20000  
0
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
France  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Germany  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
20  
300000  
250000  
200000  
150000  
100000  
50000  
0
20  
1
0
0
0
-
10  
20  
-30  
40  
50  
60  
70  
-80  
-20  
-
-40  
-
-60  
-
-
-80  
5
0000  
-
0
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Italy  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Spain  
2
1
1
1
1
1
00000  
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
00000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
160000  
20  
1
1
1
40000  
20000  
00000  
80000  
0
-
20  
-40  
60  
80  
-100  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
8
6
4
2
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-
-
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Japan  
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
100000  
20  
9
8
7
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
1
0
0
5
4
3
2
1
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-
10  
20  
-30  
40  
-50  
50000  
-
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (03/31/2022), GOOGLE 03/31/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
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