Eco week 22-17 // 25 April 2022
economic-research.bnpparibas.com
8
ECONOMIC PULSE
COVID-19: THE PANDEMIC IS CONTINUING TO DECLINE (ALMOST) ALL OVER THE WORLD
According to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University, 5.9 million cases of Covid-19 were reported worldwide between 13 and 19 April
(
down 24% relative to the previous week), the lowest level since the end of December 2021. The number of cases continued to fall in Europe and
Asia (down 26%), South America (down 24%) and Africa (down 13%), while a further increase was seen in North America (7%) for the second time
in a row (chart 1). To date, the threshold of 11 billion vaccine doses has been reached, including 1.8 billion follow-up doses. This means that
around 65% of the worldwide population has received at least one dose of a vaccine (chart 2).
With the decline in the number of new cases, visits to retail and recreation facilities rose between 4 and 17 April relative to the previous two
weeks in most of the countries in our sample. Over these two weeks, footfall increased by 10.3% in Belgium, 10% in France, 7.4% in Spain, 7% in
Italy and 6.4% in the United Kingdom. Footfall remained stable over the same period in the United States, and moved downwards again in Japan
(
down 5 points) (chart 3).
Lastly, the weekly proxy indicator of GDP remained positive in the United States, Japan, and Belgium, France and Spain. In Germany, the United
Kingdom and Italy, a clear change of trend was seen (chart 3, black line). The OECD Tracker is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on
consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The OECD calculates the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y)
to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.
Tarik Rharrab
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (19 April 2022)
Change in pp between 20 March and 19 April 2022 [RHS]
Change in pp between 14 March and 13 April 2022 [RHS]
Africa
600000
Asia
Europe
South America
North America
1
1
1
1
1
00
90
15
400000
200000
000000
8
7
6
5
0
0
0
0
1
5
0
0
8
6
4
2
00000
00000
00000
00000
0
40
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
1/20
06/20
11/20
04/21
09/21
02/22
CHART 1
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (04/21/2022), BNP PARIBAS
CHART 2
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (04/21/2022), BNP PARIBAS
The bank
for a changing
world