EcoWeek

Covid-19 pandemic: the situation in Europe continues to improve rapidly

Eco week 22-21 // 23 May 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
8
ECONOMIC PULSE  
COVID-19 PANDEMIC: THE SITUATION IN EUROPE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY  
According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, more than 4 million new cases were recorded around the world between 12 and  
1
8 May, an increase of 5% on the previous week (Chart 1). This represents the first weekly increase since the beginning of February. Looked at on  
a regional level, the situation in Europe improved significantly (-20%), and that in Africa stabilised. However, case numbers continued to climb  
in North and South America (17%). Asia saw the first increase after two months of virtually continuous falls. Meanwhile, 66% of the world’s  
population has now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (Chart 2).  
Over the same period, visits to retail and leisure facilities remained at pre-pandemic levels in Belgium and Germany whilst in the USA the figure  
is significantly higher. Japan stands out for a very abrupt reversal of its position, falling sharply over the past week from 10% above the reference  
point to 12% below (moving seven-day average). France has seen a return to normal levels in recent days, and other countries, such as Spain,  
Italy and the UK, are now getting close to normal (Chart 3, blue line).  
Lastly, the weekly proxy indicator of GDP was stable in France and Spain but continued to fall fairly markedly in Italy, the USA and the UK. In  
Germany, Belgium and Japan, the downturn is more recent but is also clearly visible in the latest data (Chart 3, black line). The OECD Tracker is  
based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The OECD  
calculates the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y) to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.  
Tarik Rharrab  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the  
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks  
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving  
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (19 May 2022)  
Africa  
600000  
Asia  
Europe  
South America  
North America  
100  
90  
1
1
1
1
8
7
6
0
0
0
400000  
200000  
000000  
50  
4
3
2
0
0
0
8
6
4
2
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
10  
0
0
1/20  
08/20  
03/21  
10/21  
05/22  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (05/19/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (05/19/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
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Eco week 22-21 // 23 May 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
9
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
United Kingdom  
United States  
2
0
0
30  
2
1
0
0
0
20  
15  
10  
5
20  
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
0
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-5  
-10  
-15  
-
100  
France  
Germany  
2
0
25  
20  
10  
0
10  
20  
25  
2
0
2
1
0
5
0
15  
1
5
0
0
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
5
0
-
-
-
-30  
-
-
-
5
10  
15  
-
-
-
-
40  
50  
60  
70  
-5  
-10  
-20  
25  
-30  
-15  
-20  
-
-
100  
-80  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Spain  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Italy  
2
0
30  
20  
30  
0
20  
0
20  
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
0
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-
100  
-
100  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Belgium  
Japan  
2
0
0
25  
20  
10  
0
22  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
1
1
7
2
7
2
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
10  
20  
-
-
-
-
5
-
10  
15  
20  
-3  
-8  
-30  
-
40  
50  
-13  
-
100  
-25  
-
-18  
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
0
SOURCE: OECD (05/19/2022), GOOGLE (05/19/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
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Eco week 22-21 // 23 May 2022  
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1
0
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY  
Daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7-day moving average)  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)[RHS]  
United States  
United Kingdom  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
30  
20  
200000  
10  
1
1
1
1
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-80  
-90  
1
0
0
100000  
0000  
60000  
-10  
-20  
-30  
8
4
2
0000  
0000  
0
-40  
-50  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
France  
Germany  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
20  
300000  
250000  
200000  
150000  
100000  
50000  
0
20  
1
0
0
0
-
-
10  
20  
-20  
-40  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-
60  
80  
-
5
0000  
0
-100  
-80  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Italy  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Spain  
20  
2
1
1
1
1
1
00000  
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
00000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
160000  
140000  
20000  
100000  
8
6
0
1
-20  
-40  
-60  
-20  
0000  
0000  
40000  
0000  
0
-40  
8
6
4
2
-
60  
80  
-80  
2
-
-100  
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Belgium  
Japan  
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
100000  
20  
9
8
7
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
1
0
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-
10  
20  
50000  
-
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-30  
40  
-50  
-
-100  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (05/19/2022), GOOGLE (05/19/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
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QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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