According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, more than 4 million new cases were recorded around the world between 12 and 18 May, an increase of 5% on the previous week (Chart 1). This has represented the first weekly increase since the beginning of February. Looked at on a regional level, the situation in Europe improved significantly (-20%), and that in Africa stabilised. However, case numbers continued to climb in North and South America (17%). Asia saw the first increase after two months of virtually continuous falls. Meanwhile, 66% of the world’s population has now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (Chart 2).
Over the same period, visits to retail and leisure facilities remained at pre-pandemic levels in Belgium and Germany whilst in the USA the figure is significantly higher. Japan stands out for a very abrupt reversal of its position, falling sharply over the past week from 10% above the reference point to 12% below (moving seven-day average). France has seen a return to normal levels in recent days, and other countries, such as Spain, Italy and the UK, are now getting close to normal (Chart 3, blue line).
Lastly, the weekly proxy indicator of GDP was stable in France and Spain but continued to fall fairly markedly in Italy, the USA and the UK. In Germany, Belgium and Japan, the downturn is more recent but is also clearly visible in the latest data (Chart 3, black line). The OECD Tracker is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The OECD calculates the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y) to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.
