EcoWeek

Covid-19 pandemic: the situation continues to improve in most regions of the world

Eco week 22-23 // 7 July 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
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ECONOMIC PULSE  
COVID-19 PANDEMIC: THE SITUATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN MOST REGIONS OF THE WORLD  
The epidemiological situation arising from the Covid-19 pandemic continues to improve in most regions of the world. For the first time since  
mid-November 2021, the number of new cases has dropped below the symbolic level of 3.5 million per week (7-day moving average). Altogether,  
3
.3 million new cases were recorded between 25 and 31 May, an 11% decline compared to the previous week (chart 1). At the regional level, the  
number of new cases continued to decline sharply in Europe (-24%) and Africa (-18%), and to a lesser extent in Asia (-7%), while North America  
reported its first weekly decline (-8%) after two months of virtually continuous increases. The number of new cases continued to rise strongly in  
South America (+52%). All in all, 66% of the world’s population has now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (chart 2).  
Over the same period, visits to retail and leisure facilities held at pre-pandemic levels in Belgium, Germany and France, and are approaching normal  
levels in Italy. Retail and leisure mobility still falls short of pre-pandemic levels in the other countries (United States, Spain, the UK and Japan;  
chart 3, blue line).  
Lastly, the OECD Weekly Tracker of GDP growth continues to decline in the United States, Germany, Italy, Belgium and Japan, and to a lesser extent,  
in France. The UK and Spain stand apart due to a rebound in the Tracker from the latest data point (chart 3, black line). The OECD Tracker is based  
on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The OECD calculates  
the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y) to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.  
Tarik Rharrab  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the  
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks  
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving  
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (1 June 2022)  
Africa  
600000  
Asia  
Europe  
South America  
North America  
1
1
1
1
100  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
400000  
200000  
000000  
8
6
4
2
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
1
0
0
0
1/20  
08/20  
03/21  
10/21  
05/22  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (06/02/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (06/02/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-23 // 7 July 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
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RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
United Kingdom  
30  
United States  
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
20  
15  
10  
5
20  
10  
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
0
-10  
-20  
-5  
-10  
-15  
-
100  
-30  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
France  
Germany  
2
0
25  
20  
10  
0
10  
20  
25  
2
0
2
1
0
5
0
15  
1
5
0
0
-
-
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
10  
5
0
-30  
-
-
-
5
10  
15  
-
-
-
-
40  
50  
60  
70  
-5  
-10  
-20  
25  
-15  
-20  
-
-
-
-
100  
-30  
-80  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Spain  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Italy  
2
0
30  
20  
30  
0
20  
0
20  
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
-20  
-40  
10  
0
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-60  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-80  
100  
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Japan  
2
0
25  
20  
22  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
1
1
7
2
7
2
1
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
10  
20  
-
-
-
-
-
5
-
-
-
3
10  
15  
20  
-30  
40  
-50  
8
-
13  
100  
-25  
-18  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
SOURCE: OECD (06/02/2022), GOOGLE (06/02/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-23 // 7 July 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
3
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY  
Daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7-day moving average)  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)[RHS]  
United States  
United Kingdom  
Germany  
Spain  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
200000  
10  
1
1
1
1
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
0
1
0
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-80  
-90  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
100000  
8
6
0000  
0000  
40000  
2
0000  
0
-50  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
France  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
20  
300000  
250000  
200000  
150000  
100000  
50000  
0
20  
1
0
-
-
-30  
0
0
10  
20  
-
20  
-40  
-
-
-
-
40  
50  
60  
70  
-
60  
80  
-
5
0000  
0
-100  
-80  
Italy  
2
1
1
1
1
1
00000  
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
00000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
160000  
20  
1
1
1
40000  
20000  
00000  
80000  
0
-
20  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-40  
8
6
4
2
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-
60  
80  
-
-100  
Belgium  
Japan  
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
100000  
20  
9
8
7
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
1
0
0
5
4
3
2
1
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-
10  
20  
50000  
-
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-30  
40  
-50  
-
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (06/02/2022), GOOGLE (06/02/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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