Eco Week
Economic Pulse

Covid-19: towards a fifth wave in Europe

11/14/2021
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The number of weekly new Covid-19 cases in Europe continued to rise for the seventh consecutive week, with 1.7 million new cases reported between 3 and 9 November (chart 1). Russia reported the highest number of new cases (280,455), followed by the UK (236,899, in decline from the previous week), Germany (194,577), Ukraine (151,796), Poland (90,506), the Netherlands (76,623), and Belgium and France (with nearly 60,000 new cases each). At the same time, vaccination coverage though slowing down, continues to expand. To date, 7.34 billion doses of the Covid-19 vaccine have been given worldwide, bringing the share of the global population that has received at least one dose of the vaccine to 51.2% (chart 2).

Retail and leisure footfall is on a slight downward trend in Germany and Italy, and to a lesser extent in France, Spain and the UK, a development that could be related to the health situation in Europe, especially in Germany. Belgium stands apart with a relatively stable situation during the recent period. In the United States, the trend continues to level off, while Japan is still reporting positive momentum, bringing it closer to pre-pandemic levels (chart 3, blue line).

Lastly, the OECD Weekly Tracker of GDP growth compared to the level 2 years earlier (y/2y) continues to improve in France and Japan. The upward trend reported recently in the United States and the UK gave way to a slight drop last week. In Germany, Spain and Italy, the Tracker declined more sharply, while in Belgium it seems to be levelling off (chart 3, black line). The OECD Tracker is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The change over a two-year period (y/2y) is calculated to avoid the base effect that would arise from a comparison with 2020 data.

DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES (7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY
THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE

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