EcoWeek

Mobility: back to pre-pandemic levels in the United States and Belgium

Eco week 22-19 // 9 mai 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
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ECONOMIC PULSE  
MOBILITY: BACK TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS IN THE USA AND BELGIUM  
For the first time since December 2021, the number of new global Covid-19 cases for the week has fallen below the symbolic level of 5 million  
(
average for a moving seven-day period). Some 4.3 million new cases were recorded between 26 April and 3 May, a fall of 15% on the previous  
week (chart 1). The fall in infections continued in Asia (-24%) and Europe (-17%), but other regions indicated an increase in case numbers: North  
America (+11%), South America (+8%) and Africa (+4%). To date, 12 billion vaccine doses have been given around the world, taking the share of  
the global population to have received at least one jab to 65.4%. Despite this, in some parts of the world overall vaccine coverage remains low,  
with just 15.8% of people in low income countries having received at least their first dose (chart 2).  
With new case numbers falling, visits to retail and recreation facilities rose over the course of April in most countries in our sample. There were  
increases of 8.4% in Italy, 8% in France, 7% in Spain and Germany, and 5% in the UK. Visits were stable in Japan. Visit numbers also rose in the  
USA and Belgium over the same period – by 16% and 8% respectively – returning to pre-pandemic levels during the first week of April (chart 3).  
Lastly, the trend in the weekly proxy indicator of GDP remained positive in Japan. In France, Spain and Belgium, the slight fall seen this week  
followed a rising trend, whilst the downturn was slightly more marked in Germany, Italy, the USA and the UK (chart 3, black line). The OECD  
Tracker is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty.  
The OECD calculates the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y) to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.  
Tarik Rharrab  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the  
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks  
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving  
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (3 May 2022)  
Africa  
600000  
Asia  
Europe  
South America  
North America  
1
1
1
1
100  
9
8
0
0
400000  
200000  
000000  
70  
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
6
4
2
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
0
1/20  
06/20  
11/20  
04/21  
09/21  
02/22  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (05/04/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (05/04/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-19 // 9 mai 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
2
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
United Kingdom  
40  
United States  
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
25  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
30  
20  
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
1
0
0
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
-
10  
20  
-5  
-
-10  
-
100  
-30  
-15  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Germany  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
France  
2
0
0
30  
20  
25  
20  
1
0
0
20  
1
5
-
-
10  
20  
-30  
40  
50  
60  
70  
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
10  
5
0
-
-
-
0
-
-
-
-
-10  
-20  
-30  
-5  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
100  
-80  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Spain  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Italy  
2
0
0
40  
20  
30  
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
20  
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-20  
-40  
10  
-
-
-
0
-60  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-
10  
20  
-80  
-
-
100  
-30  
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Japan  
2
0
25  
20  
22  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
1
1
7
2
7
2
1
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
10  
20  
-
-
-
-
-
5
-
-
-
3
10  
15  
20  
-30  
40  
-50  
8
-
13  
-
100  
-25  
-18  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
SOURCE: OECD (05/04/2022), GOOGLE (05/04/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-19 // 9 mai 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
3
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY  
Daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7-day moving average)  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)[RHS]  
United States  
United Kingdom  
Germany  
Spain  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
200000  
10  
1
1
1
1
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
0
1
0
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-80  
-90  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
100000  
8
6
0000  
0000  
40000  
2
0000  
0
-50  
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
0
France  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
20  
0
300000  
250000  
200000  
150000  
100000  
50000  
0
20  
1
0
-
-
-30  
0
10  
20  
-
20  
-40  
-
-
-
-
40  
50  
60  
70  
-
60  
80  
-
5
0000  
0
-100  
-80  
Italy  
2
1
1
1
1
1
00000  
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
00000  
20  
0
160000  
20  
1
1
1
40000  
20000  
00000  
80000  
0
-
20  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-40  
8
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-
60  
80  
-
-100  
Belgium  
Japan  
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
100000  
20  
9
8
7
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
1
0
0
5
4
3
2
1
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-
10  
20  
50000  
-
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-30  
40  
-50  
-
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (05/04/2022), GOOGLE (05/04/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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