EcoWeek

OECD weekly indicator suggests slowing activity in advanced economies

EcoWeek 22-24 // 13 June 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
9
ECONOMIC PULSE  
OECD WEEKLY INDICATOR SUGGESTS SLOWING ACTIVITY IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES  
The Covid-19 pandemic continues to slow around the world. According to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University, 3.3 million new cases  
were recorded around the world in the week of 1 to 7 June, a 4% drop on the previous week (Chart 1). On a regional level, the epidemic continues  
to ease in Africa (-24%) and Asia (-18%), whilst the number of new cases in Europe has stabilised after two months of substantial falls. New case  
numbers in South America continued to rise strongly (21%), whilst North America also posted a small increase. Meanwhile, 67% of the world’s  
population has now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (Chart 2).  
Over the same period, visits to retail and leisure facilities are still running at pre-pandemic levels in France, Belgium and Germany, whilst Italy  
and the UK are close to returning to this level. Conversely, visit numbers remain lower than they were before the pandemic in the USA, Spain and  
Japan (Chart 3, blue line).  
The weekly proxy indicator for year-on-year GDP growth continued to weaken in the USA, the UK and, to a lesser extent, Belgium. Conversely, it  
remained stable in France, Italy and Spain. In Germany and Japan, we are seeing slightly clearer signs of a downturn (Chart 3, black line). This  
indicator is produced by the OECD on the basis of data from Google Trends for searches relating to consumption, the labour and property markets,  
industrial activity and uncertainty. The indicator shown here is calculated on a moving 12-month basis.  
Tarik Rharrab  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the  
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks  
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving  
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (1 June 2022)  
Africa  
600000  
Asia  
Europe  
South America  
North America  
100  
90  
1
1
1
1
8
7
6
0
0
0
400000  
200000  
000000  
50  
4
3
2
0
0
0
8
6
4
2
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
10  
0
0
1/20  
08/20  
03/21  
10/21  
05/22  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (06/08/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (06/08/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
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EcoWeek 22-24 // 13 June 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
0
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
United Kingdom  
40  
United States  
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
30  
2
2
5
0
3
2
0
0
15  
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
1
5
0
0
10  
0
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
-5  
-
10  
20  
-
-
10  
15  
-80  
100  
-
-
-30  
-20  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
France  
Germany  
2
0
0
30  
20  
0
0
10  
20  
-30  
40  
-50  
20  
1
15  
2
1
0
0
0
1
5
0
0
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-10  
-20  
-30  
-5  
-10  
-
-15  
-
-
60  
70  
-20  
-25  
-
-
-
100  
-40  
-80  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Spain  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Italy  
2
0
0
40  
20  
40  
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
30  
0
20  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-20  
-40  
10  
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-60  
-80  
100  
-40  
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Japan  
2
0
25  
20  
22  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
1
1
7
2
7
2
1
0
0
0
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-
10  
20  
-
-
-
-
-
5
-
-
-
3
10  
15  
20  
-30  
40  
-50  
8
-
13  
100  
-25  
-18  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
SOURCE: OECD (06/08/2022), GOOGLE (06/08/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
EcoWeek 22-24 // 13 June 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
1
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY  
Daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7-day moving average)  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)[RHS]  
United States  
United Kingdom  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
200000  
10  
1
1
1
1
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
0
1
0
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-80  
-90  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
100000  
8
6
0000  
0000  
40000  
2
0000  
0
-50  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
France  
Germany  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
20  
300000  
250000  
200000  
150000  
100000  
50000  
0
20  
1
0
0
0
-
-
10  
20  
-20  
-40  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-
60  
80  
-
5
0000  
0
-100  
-80  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Italy  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Spain  
20  
2
1
1
1
1
1
00000  
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
00000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
160000  
140000  
20000  
100000  
8
6
0
1
-20  
-40  
-60  
-20  
0000  
0000  
40000  
20000  
0
-40  
8
6
4
2
-
60  
80  
-80  
-
-100  
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Belgium  
Japan  
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
100000  
20  
9
8
7
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
1
0
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
-20  
-
10  
20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
50000  
-
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-30  
40  
-50  
-
-100  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (06/08/2022), GOOGLE (06/08/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
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