The composite PMI is stabilising at the global level but this is masking strongly diverging trends. The United States and China continue to improve, India is a bit weaker but still at a very high level, whereas the United Kingdom has dropped slightly below 50. The big decline occurred in the Eurozone with the index dropping from 50.0 to 45.3. The manufacturing sector is clearly not to blame. It weakened only very slightly in the eurozone. However, strong differences can be observed amongst eurozone countries both in level terms –Germany and the Netherlands doing very well, France, Spain and in particular Greece being below the eurozone average- and in terms of change versus the previous month, with most seeing weaker readings but Ireland and in particular the Netherlands registering an improvement. The US also saw a big jump and China improved further. Also noteworthy are the better data for Indonesia.
The picture is very different for services, at least in Europe. The index for the eurozone and its members for which it is available show considerable declines, although staying well above the lows seen in spring. Clearly, the impact of the second wave of infections is less severe. In China, the index improved further, as well as in the United States, despite the strong rise in infections. Manufacturing export orders are doing less well than the overall manufacturing PMI. At the global level, export orders have essentially been stable for the past three months and above 50.
At the individual country level, Germany stands out –November was still very strong but less than beforefollowed by the United Kingdom, Brazil and the Czech Republic –all on an improving trend-, India and China. France and Greece have witnessed a considerable decline. The manufacturing employment PMI improved quite a bit in the Eurozone and for most of its member countries. The readings for Germany and the Netherlands saw a big improvement but they weakened in Spain and, in particular, Greece. Another noteworthy improvement is Australia.
COMPOSITE PMI
MANUFACTURING PMI
SERVICES PMI
MANUFACTURING PMI – NEW EXPORT ORDERS
MANUFACTURING PMI – EMPLOYMENT
