Our nowcast highlights an acceleration in growth in the Eurozone in Q4 (+0.4% q/q). And the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now shows continued strong growth in the US.
Growth is expected to have accelerated or at least remain steady across all regions in Q4. This is reflected in our nowcast for the Eurozone (+0.4% q/q) and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow (+1.3%q/q). In France, after a very good figure in Q3, our nowcast suggests another strong performance (+0.3% q/q), as does our forecast for Spain (+0.7%). Our forecasts point to improving growth figures in the United Kingdom (0.2%), Italy (0.2%) and Japan (0.3%); the same goes for the figure published in China (+1.2% q/q).
In the Eurozone, the improvement in the business climate points to stronger activity. Household confidence remains moderate but spending intentions are rebounding. The unemployment rate is close to its low point, and inflation remains under control.
Lending rates are relative stable since September. Bank financing flows to Eurozone corporations are expanding faster than market financing flows. In France, outstanding loans continue to recover overall.
The industrial recession ended in Q4 2025 in Germany. Production rebounded, driven by capital goods, as did demand (new industrial orders). However, the business climate remains mixed.
The business climate initially improved in industry (driven by the rebound in aeronautics production) and is now improving in services as well, particularly business services. Household confidence continues to improve, albeit moderately. The labour market remains resilient.
Despite the slowdown in December 2025, the business climate remains favourable. Household confidence remained stable over the last two months of the year. The unemployment rate reached a historic low. At the same time, the number of people in employment remains at its highest level.
The business climate is strengthening and high consumer confidence is supporting private consumption. The labour market remains dynamic. Wage growth (negotiated hourly) continues (+3.5% y/y in Q4; stable compared to Q3) and remains above inflation, leading to an increase in households’ purchasing power.
The business climate is still favourable in the UK, but household consumption has remained sluggish. Payroll employment fell sharply in Q4, mainly in the retail sector. The unemployment rate stabilised in November at its highest level since December 2020 (5.1%).
In the US, business sentiment improved significantly in services, but household sentiment worsened. The slowdown in job growth continues.
In Japan, business conditions showed improvement after holding up well. Household sentiment is also recovering. But real wages decline and the unemployment rate is persistently low.
PMIs improved slightly at the end of 2025. Chinese household sentiment is recovering slowly, but demand is still weak. Labour market is sluggish.
Our nowcasts for Q3 2025 highlight resilient GDP growth in the Eurozone and France. In Italy and Germany, two economies that suffered a setback in Q2 after a very good Q1, we expect growth to strengthen in Q3 and more markedly in Q4. The UK, meanwhile, is expected to see growth slow in Q3 (after a very strong H1 2025), before rebounding in Q4. In the US, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now suggests another upside surprise for Q3 growth (1% q/q), before a backlash and a sharp slowdown in Q4. In Japan and China, the slowdown would occur as early as Q3, after a good H1.
The recovery in PMI indices continues despite a decline in industry. In September 2025, the composite PMI reached its highest level since May 2024 (51.2), an improvement attributable to services (51.4). However, the manufacturing index, which had been recovering sharply since the beginning of the year, declined in September (-1.2 points to 49.5). Industrial production rose by 0.3% m/m in July. The economic sentiment index stabilised in Q3.
Rates on new investment loans (irf>5 years) to non-financial corporations in the Eurozone fell very slightly in July 2025 for the second consecutive month. At 3.58%, however, they remained close to their June 2025 level. Rates on new treasury loans (floating rate and irf<3 months) to NFCs fell slightly more sharply to 3.31%. Conversely, rates on new loans to households for house purchase and consumption rose just as modestly (by +1 bp and +6 bp m/m, respectively). They stood at 3.30% and 7.41%, respectively.
The decline in the IFO index in September does not impede the upward trend that began in early 2025. The relative weakness in September particularly affected services and retail trade. However, there has been a clear improvement since the beginning of the year in German industry, construction and wholesale trade. This momentum has not yet spread to the rest of the economy, whilst awaiting the effective implementation of investment plans, with a ramp-up expected in Q4.
In France, the improvement in certain sectors is not spreading to others. The composite business climate has been stable for five months, at 96. Several sectors benefited from an improvement in Q2, including aeronautics, information and communication, and construction (to a lesser extent). These sectors continue to outperform in Q3, but without this spreading to other sectors; they should therefore continue to support growth in Q3. However, growth is vulnerable to a slowdown in these sectors in the absence of other drivers.
In September, the economic sentiment index remained below its long-term average, held back by industry with a production index still in negative territory (-17.4) and production forecasts declining (-0.9). This contrasts with the rise in Italian's industrial production. In services, sentiment is improving (+2.5; +0.2 pts) but activity is struggling to take off. However, expectations for demand in the coming months are rising (6.3, the highest since April 2024; +4.6 pts).
In Spain, business confidence strengthened in September and remains well above its long-term average. In industry, the index remains in contraction territory but is improving (-4.7; +1.1 pts m/m). Production expectations for the coming months have risen significantly since spring (3.2 vs. -0.4 on average in Q2), although they are down compared with last month (-1.1 pts).
The composite PMI has been in expansionary territory for five months. However, it fell to 50.1 in September (-3.4 pts m/m), dragged down by the services PMI (50.8; -3.4 pts m/m), which had reached an 18-month high in August. The manufacturing PMI was weakened in September by the ‘production’ and ‘new export orders’ sub-components. The July decline in industrial production suggests a backlash after a surge in growth linked to expectations of US tariff increases.
The non-manufacturing ISM fell markedly in September to 50.0. This result was due to a decline in business activity and new orders components. Manufacturing ISM improved to 49.1 in September, driven by output growth (51.0). However, new orders contracted (48.9), particularly those for export (43.0). The rise in prices paid slowed for the third consecutive month (61.9).
The Tankan survey reported an improvement in large Japonese manufacturing companies' sentiment (14) in Q3, including in the motor vehicles sector (10). The overall figure (all enterprises and all industries) remained stable (10). The Services PMI remained stable at a high level (53) in September, while the Manufacturing PMI (48.4) fell to a five-month low due to the first contraction in hiring (49.4) since November 2024 and a decline in output (47.3, -2.5 pp).
In the Chinese manufacturing sector, the official PMI has remained in contraction territory since April, but it improved to 49.8 in September. The PMI published by RatingDog (formerly Caixin) also improved (to 51.2 from 50.5 in August and 49.5 in July). This slight recovery is notably due to the “new export orders” sub-component, which reached 47.8 in the official index – a level that, while still in contraction territory, is at its highest since March. The export sector continues to withstand the rise in US tariffs.
Our Q2 2025 nowcasts highlight the resilience of the Eurozone and, to a lesser extent, France. Weaker exports (after their surge in Q1 in anticipation of the US trade tariffs) penalises our forecast in Q2. It’s the opposite for the US with the Atlanta Fed nowcast at +0.7% for Q2. However, US GDP growth is estimated to have slowed down; that of the Eurozone is expected to be more stable. Japan is not expected to emerge from the stagnation observed in Q1.
The composite PMI index was stable at 50.2 in June, remaining above the expansion threshold in the first half of the year. The upturn in the manufacturing index slowed but continued (+0.1 pt to 49.5). It was driven in particular by new orders, with the index back above the 50 threshold for the first time in three years. The services PMI is unchanged.
