Our Pulse chart shows that the economic situation in Q3, designated by the blue area, was almost unchanged from that in the previous quarter, represented by the area delimited by the dashed lines. Recent business cycle indicators even suggest that the recovery is losing steam. The ifo business indicator has been declining since July. In particular, the manufacturing sector is reporting a worsening of business conditions as both activity and expectations are on a declining trend.
For the first time in several months, the INSEE and Markit business climate surveys did not move in the same direction in September. The INSEE composite index picked up slightly (up 1 point to 111), while the composite PMI continued to erode (down 1 point to 55). The activity component of the manufacturing PMI declined more sharply (down 3 points to 51.3) than for the services PMI.
In Spain, like in most Western countries, the 2008 crisis caused an unprecedented drop in industrial employment, the pain of which continues to be felt. In fact, there are almost 500,000 fewer manufacturing jobs than in 2008. Some of this decline, however, reflects an increasingly important shift from industrial firms to service offerings, which is not a bad thing. With the Covid-19 crisis and the EUR 69.5 billion Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), which will be rolled out over the next five years, strengthening industry in Spain has once again become an important area of focus for the authorities. A quarter of the RRP will therefore be dedicated to this objective
In the first quarter of 2021 cumulated amounts of state-guaranteed loans (SGLs) granted by euro area banks reached EUR 376.4 bn, from EUR 184.7 bn in the second quarter of 2020. The proportion of total lending to non-financial corporations (which has remained relatively stable) represented by SGLs thus rose from 3.3% to 6.9% over the same period. French, Spanish and Italian banks have made a particularly substantial contribution to supporting economic activity during the Covid-19 pandemic. They granted 90.6% of all SGLs across the euro area (EUR 131.7 bn, EUR 108.7 bn and EUR 100.5 bn respectively) whilst their share of total lending to NFCs was only 57.7% on average between the second quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021
Although they have eased recently, high Eurozone manufacturing price pressures are fuelling analysts’ concerns that inflation could stay high for longer. There is an impression that the ECB is increasingly sympathetic for this view. This is important in the run-up to the December meeting of the governing council. Whether supply bottlenecks and rising input prices will have a longer-lasting effect on inflation depends on the transmission to the rest of the economy. One would expect it to be higher under a combination of strong demand, low inventory levels and long supplier delivery times. This corresponds to the current situation in the sectors producing durable consumer goods, intermediate goods and investment goods
The Greek economy is recovering relatively quickly from the Covid shock of 2020, judging by the GDP and employment figures released in early September. Real GDP grew 3.4% q/q in Q2 and was 0.6% higher than pre-Covid levels. Since the beginning of the pandemic, Greece has reported the fourth strongest rebound in activity among the 19 Eurozone member countries. Even though household consumption remained fragile in Q2 (+0.9% q/q) due to health restrictions, investment was once again solid (+4.3% q/q). Employment has also reached levels unseen for the past 10 years. Although these figures are encouraging, they nonetheless fit within a health environment that is still uncertain, with a vaccination rate in the country far below the EU average
The new macroeconomic projections of the ECB staff provide sobering reading for savers hoping that, one day, the policy rate will be raised. It is clear that at the current juncture, certain conditions of the recently updated forward guidance on interest rates states are not met. Based on the latest ECB projections, it seems this would still be the case in 2023, even under the hypothesis of a mild scenario. The slow increase of underlying inflation would probably be considered as unsatisfactory. Savers can only hope that the interaction between growth and inflation will evolve or that the ECB projections turn out to be too cautious.
After two quarters of slight contraction (-0.4% q/q in Q4 2020, -0.3% in Q1 2021), during which lockdown restrictions were reintroduced in various countries in the zone, growth bounced back strongly in Q2 2021 (up 2.2% q/q, 14.3% y/y). The growth carry-over is nearly 4% and the gap to the pre-crisis GDP level of Q4 2019 is now only 2.5%. The strength of the rebound had already been seen in survey data from April to June, whether from Markit’s PMI or the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Index (ESI).
Although the pace of growth in industrial production has slowed, our barometer shows significant improvements in exports and retail sales over the last three months (shown in blue) compared to the previous three months (delimited by the dashed line). The second estimate for Q2 GDP, published on 31 August, confirmed a solid recovery (+2.7% q/q), driven in large part by the easing of restrictions and the subsequent increases in consumption.
The Spanish economy has put in a solid performance over the summer, with a marked improvement in the employment data. The number of workers registered with the Social Security system has risen by more than 410,000 over the past three months, and now nearly match the pre-Covid level. The unemployment rate is likely to fall again in Q3 as a result. It already dipped to 14.3% in July, not far from the pre-pandemic low of 13.7%. Given that a significant share of the new hires were seasonal contracts, we will have to wait for this autumn’s employment figures to get a more accurate picture of the strength of the recovery.
The credit impulse in the eurozone, reflecting the year-on-year change in credit outstanding, remained negative in June 2021. As a reminder, the introduction of financial support measures for companies by eurozone governments led to exceptionally strong but temporary growth in bank lending to non-financial corporations in spring 2020. Combined with this, the slowdown in outstandings seen a year later (+1.9% y/y in June 2021 vs. +5.3% in March 2021) squeezed the credit impulse in lending to non-financial corporations (-5.3% in June 2021 vs. +0.3% in March).
The German economic climate has significantly improved according to our Pulse. The blue area, representing the situation in the past three months, has clearly expanded compared to that in the preceding three-month period (the area within the dashed line). This is most obvious in the hard data for the manufacturing sector such as orders and production, which strengthened significantly in Q2 from the previous quarter.
According to INSEE’s preliminary estimate, French GDP grew 0.9% q/q in Q2 2021. This outcome was slightly better than expected, as we had forecast a 0.8% rise and INSEE a 0.7% increase. Although growth in France was significantly weaker than across the euro zone at large (2% q/q) or the United States (1.6% q/q), it was still a decent figure given the circumstances. Indeed, despite the third lockdown in April, it lay well inside positive territory. The lockdown’s negative impact on economic activity was even more modest than that of the second lockdown.
To determine whether the French labour market has returned to good health, we can use the two gauges retained by the French government in the unemployment insurance reform: 1/ the number of “category A” jobseekers must have decreased by at least 130,000 over six months; 2/ hiring reports for jobs lasting more than 1 month (excluding temporary work) must also exceed a 4-month moving average of 2.7 million contracts. In June 2021, both these criteria were met. The improvement is less surprising for hiring reports than for registrations with the “Pôle Emploi” employment service, with the bar seemingly more easily reachable for the former than for the latter. This first positive sign[1] still needs to be confirmed over the coming months but things seem to be on the right track
Once again, Spain has become an epicentre of the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe after new cases of the Delta variant spiked, especially in Catalonia. The number of new contaminations could rapidly surpass the peaks reached during previous waves of the pandemic. The days and weeks ahead will tell whether the vaccination campaign is paying off – more than 50% of the population is now fully vaccinated (2 doses) – and whether the authorities can limit the reintroduction of health measures that restrict economic activity.
Covid-19 was only a temporary brake on Polish growth. The economy is outperforming its neighbours’, with a shallower recession in 2020 and an earlier recovery. Credit risk appears to be under relatively good control, despite high levels of participation for the loan repayment moratorium scheme. Supply side constraints are even raising fears of a temporary overheating of the economy, with an increase in inflation. However, a strong current account surplus and the good control of government debt are stabilising factors. Poland’s economic growth potential remains unchanged, even though the prospect of international tax harmonisation may slow down foreign investment.
The Romanian economy is in the midst of a spectacular rebound. Real GDP has already returned to pre-Covid levels, and growth should reach 8.2% in 2021. But this performance has been accompanied by high fiscal and external deficits. Consequently, contrary to the other Central European countries, public debt is unlikely to narrow by 2022. Private-sector borrowers benefited from a moratorium on debt payments, but debt formerly under moratorium now presents a non-performing loan ratio of 10.9%. Nonetheless, the banking system should be able to absorb these losses. However, one factor worth monitoring is the rapid growth in housing loans.
The outcome of the ECB’s strategy review shows that the governing council has carefully listened to what its audience had to say. Its inflation objective is now truly symmetric, which addresses the perception that its previous objective was asymmetric. Three other changes reflect points that were strongly emphasized during the outreach events organised by the Eurosystem. The cost of owner-occupied housing will be taken into account when assessing the inflation environment. The communication will become geared towards a broader public and a decision has been taken to commit to an ambitious climate-related action plan. Now it’s back to the hard work of trying to push inflation up to 2%.
The Eurozone economy is bouncing back. From a macroeconomic perspective, the region is closing the gap on the losses accumulated since spring 2020 more quickly than expected just a few months ago. Unless a new wave of the pandemic breaks out due to the spread of Covid-19 variants, Eurozone GDP should return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year. Accelerated vaccination campaigns and the gradual lifting of health restrictions are reducing uncertainty and boosting the confidence of economic agents. Consumers, who have adapted to restrictive health measures, are playing a key role. Despite these favourable dynamics, public policies are remaining cautious
After a sharp contraction in Q1 2020, the economic climate improved significantly in Q2, as the domestic economy gradually opens up. In 2020, the government was very successful in limiting the impact of the coronavirus crisis for households and businesses. In 2021, the fiscal policy stance will remain very accommodative, and covid-19 support measures could amount to 3% of GDP. As the federal election takes place on 26 September, the budget for 2022 will be determined by the incoming government. Opinion polls point to a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Greens, which should propel climate change to the top of the agenda. The economy is projected to grow robustly in 2021 and 2022. On the domestic side, the main engine of support is private consumption
Based on May and June business confidence surveys, the French economy has been rebounding more vigorously than expected from the third lockdown. We have raised our Q2 growth forecast, from near zero to near 1% QoQ. In Q3, the mechanistic rebound would bring growth to about 3% QoQ. Growth is expected to ebb thereafter as the catching-up effects dissipate, although it should remain high, bolstered by the fiscal impulse. The downside of the vigorous upsurge in demand is that it is squeezing the supply side, which is less responsive. The ensuing supply chain constraints, higher input prices and hiring difficulties are all sources of friction that must be monitored since they could hamper the recovery
At the beginning of 2021, the economic growth surprised on the upside. In Q1, real GDP rose by 0.1%. Private consumption declined, reflecting the disappointing evolution of income and a still high propensity to save, investment rose by almost 4%. The recovery turned out to be uneven, with industry and construction seeing a quicker rebound, while services continued to suffer. The economic growth is expected to strengthen in the coming months. The acceleration of the vaccination programme and a significant improvement in the health outlook have boosted optimism among consumers and businesses. In order to make the recovery long lasting, Italy has to improve the quality of human capital to balance the decline in productivity also due to an elderly work force.
Just when the lights seemed to be turning green on the health front, the spread of the Delta variant in Spain, as elsewhere in Europe, is a cause of concern. The risks remain currently under control and economic activity should record a significant upturn this summer. The easing of travel restrictions and the introduction of the European health pass since 25 June should allow the Spanish tourist industry to lift itself back up, which would have positive knock-on effects on consumption and employment. Even so, and despite the fact that growth is expected to bounce back strongly, to 6.0% in 2021, the Covid-19 will continue to leave its mark on Spain’s public finances
The Belgian economy grew at an above-potential rate in the first quarter of this year, and looks to be on course to maintain this pace throughout the year. Full year growth is expected to come in at 5.1%. Private sector sentiment is strong and the labour market is emerging from the health crisis virtually unharmed, with the unemployment rate still hovering at around 5%. Public finances, largely responsible for the current strong situation through extensive support measures, need to be improved over the medium-term, as the government aims to capitalise on the recovery to fix other, more structural issues.
Although Finland was one of the European countries hit the least by the Covid-19 pandemic, its economic recovery was nonetheless pushed back by a third wave of contaminations in late winter 2020 and early spring 2021. The economy will rebound in the second half of this year, buoyed by consumption and the upturn in global trade. GDP growth should range between 2.5% and 3% in 2021 and 2022. Very concerned about the solidity of its public finances, the country saw its public debt swell by about 10 points of GDP last year while the deficit rose to 5.4% of GDP.
