After two years – 2021 and 2022 – of significant improvement linked to the post-Covid recovery in activity, 2023 marked a halt in the recovery of public finances in the euro area. According to preliminary results published on Monday by Eurostat, the public deficit narrowed in 2023 by only 0.1 point of GDP, to 3.6%. The primary deficit also fell by the same magnitude, to 1.9% of GDP.
Annual flows of money market fund shares/units held by non-financial corporations (NFCs) in France were positive throughout 2023, having been negative from the second quarter of 2021 to the fourth quarter of 2022. This trend reversal was due most notably to the increase in key ECB interest rates on 27 July 2022, which pushed up money market returns.
Economic activity in the eurozone is expected to gradually pick up over the course of 2024, buoyed by improving household purchasing power and falling interest rates. However, the industrial sector in the eurozone is facing major structural problems, which will not (or will only slightly) be addressed by lowering the ECB’s policy rates. The ramp-up of the EU’s recovery fund should, in theory, enable southern eurozone countries, which are the main recipients, to outperform again in 2024. However, so far, its effects have been relatively limited and the implementation problems, as highlighted in a recent European Commission report, will not go away completely this year.
The German economy has been significantly underperforming the eurozone average and past standards for just over 6 years. The country might even be in recession again in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. So has Germany bottomed out? From an economic point of view, this is likely because the moment of weakness, posted this winter, is partly due to exceptional effects. From a structural point of view, the German economy is expected to continue to post moderate growth, which would not allow it to regain its status as a driver of European growth.
Just as in 2022 and 2023, the French economy got off to a weak start this year and is expected to see its growth accelerate in Q2. Although not in the same way as in previous years, headwinds affected the French economy in Q1 2024. Beyond this purely cyclical upturn, to return to more durable growth, we will need to wait for the return of French consumers, which we also expect to see in Q2. And lastly, corporate investment should once again bolster French growth, with the implementation of the France Green Industry plan in particular.
In 2023, Italian real GDP rose by almost 1%. The recovery of the economy was broad-based. Private consumption rose by 1.2% in 2023, benefitting from the further improvement in labour market conditions. In 2023, investment continued to be the main driver of the Italian recovery. Expenditures on machinery and ICT equipment were 20% higher than in 2019, with some first positive effects on Italian potential growth. The growth in investment since the post-pandemic period has increased the number of firms using technologies relying more effectively on digital transformation to boost productivity.
In 2023, Spanish real GDP (up an annual average of 2.5%) grew much more than Eurozone real GDP (0.5% y/y). Household consumption, the main driver of growth, was buoyed by the strong labour market and slowing inflation. We are forecasting growth of 0.4% q/q in Q1 2024, before it accelerates in the subsequent quarters. Therefore, for the fourth year, Spanish growth is expected to be one of the Eurozone’s driving forces (2% y/y versus 0.7% y/y).
The short Dutch recession seems to be over, thanks to dynamic private and public consumption. Inflation continues to cool down, even though it remains stickier than thought in some sectors. A new government has still not been formed yet, but there is a consensus about the fact that once it is the case, public spending is set to increase further, giving the economy an extra boost. The Dutch economy is therefore likely to navigate a different, more positive, path from its neighbors’.
Our first quarter nowcast confirms the outlook for the Belgian economy: it keeps cruising at close to trend-growth rates (0.3% q/q), despite the challenging external environment. One-off factors temporarily sped up normalisation in both firm investment and international trade, but private consumption once again carries the brunt of economic growth. Consumption patterns are changing however, with more e-commerce and share of total outlays spent on services. Belgian firms continue to demonstrate resilience, while the labour market cools down.
After eight years of socialist government, the centre-right Democratic Alliance coalition won the snap general election held on 10 March. This shift in the political landscape, where no party now has an absolute majority in Portugal’s Parliament, could be a source of instability in the country. Nevertheless, the sweeping consolidation of public finances during António Costa’s term, as well as sound macroeconomic fundamentals, give the future government considerable economic and fiscal leeway. Portuguese growth is expected to remain well above Eurozone growth in 2024 (standing at 1.2%, according to the European Commission, compared to 0.7% for the Eurozone).
The S&P Global manufacturing PMIs for the month of March point towards a pickup in economic momentum in most countries. In the Eurozone, the improvement is strong, especially in manufacturing and to a lesser degree in services. Momentum is slow however in terms of employment. In the US, the recent pickup in manufacturing sentiment is also strong compared to history. Against the background of these and other strong data, Fed officials have insisted on the need for caution in cutting rates, all the more so considering that the pace of disinflation has clearly slowed. The US soft landing view is increasingly being challenged and ‘no landing’ is put forward as an alternative
In Q1 2024, business insolvencies in France reached nearly 15,000 units. This is only slightly less than in Q4 2023, which was marked by a sharp rise. Although the construction and retail trade sectors are facing a significant increase in the number of businesses affected, insolvencies in these sectors remain below historic highs. On the other hand, records were set in business services and in transport and storage services.
Our Western Europe business insolvencies index has risen above its pre-COVID level. However, it is still far below the peaks seen after the 2008 crisis and during the eurozone crisis (between 2011 and 2015). In most countries, the business insolvencies level is now higher than it was before the pandemic. This has been the case since 2022 for the UK and Sweden, which were joined by France, Belgium and Germany during 2023. However, in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands, the insolvency levels are still far below their pre-COVID peaks. These diverging evolutions are also being reflected in sectors, with sharper deterioration in construction, trade and real estate agencies in the countries that have suffered the steepest decline in business activity.
Disinflation in the euro zone continues to buoy household confidence. The European Commission index rose by 0.6 points to 14.9 points in March, according to the flash estimate. This is its highest level since February 2022 and the start of the war in Ukraine.
The first indicators available for January point to a continuing weak start to the quarter (after contraction in GDP of -0.3% q/q in Q4 2023), hence our forecast of a further drop in GDP of -0.1% q/q in Q1. Manufacturing production (up 1% m/m in January) remained 1.5% below the figure seen in November, due to a sharp drop in automotive production (down 10% in January from the level seen in November).
Q1 got off to a bad start, with a drop in manufacturing production in January (-1.6% m/m) linked to the shutdown of oil refineries for maintenance (with new difficulties in March), and a downturn in the automotive sector (supply problems, followed by a drop in demand affecting the production). At the same time, January’s foreign trade data do not suggest a rebound in imports of intermediate goods (inputs for other sectors).
Activity in the private sector in Italy continued to improve in February, according to the composite PMI index, which was up 0.4 points over a month, taking it to 51.1. However, unlike the current situation in Spain, the divergence between the manufacturing sector and the services sector is becoming more pronounced.
As expected, Spanish inflation slowed in February. In year-on-year terms, the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by only 2.9% (-0.6 percentage points compared to January) due to an increase in energy price deflation, itself brought about by favourable weather conditions.1 Like other countries in the eurozone, inflation in services persists in Spain, the country remaining the main component contributing to overall inflation (contribution of 1.9 pp).
In terms of the trade balance, 2023 largely unwound the problems of 2022, which, with itsburdens and shocks, constituted an annus horribilis for French foreign trade.
According to our forecast, inflation is expected to have fallen again in March to 2.4% y/y compared to 3% in February, due to the marked easing in food prices. However, French inflation is expected to then remain between 2 and 2.5% y/y until the end of August, due to depletion of the favourable effects linked to the end of inflation on food and manufactured goods and the continuation of inflation on services, before probably falling below 2% in September.
Since 2022, the French government has reduced several types of production tax. This is the case for tax based on corporate value added (CVAE), which was reduced gradually in 2021 and 2023, and will continue to be phased out in 2024, this process coming to an end in 2027.
After the youth unemployment rate (15-24 years old) hit its lowest level for more than 30 years at the end of 2021, standing at 16.4% of the working population, it has risen slightly since then, with a figure of 17.5% in Q4 2023 (compared to 16.7% in Q1 2023). Despite being almost 3 points above the Eurozone average, this rate is still substantially lower than the 2019 one (20.8%).
Monetary anchoring is one of the main arguments put forward by central banks to justify an eponymous digital currency. According to supporters of the digital euro, a reduction in the use of paper money or even its disappearance would be the natural next step and result in the creation of a digital form of central bank currency that would be the only guaranteed way of keeping the currency anchored in the digital era. Nothing could be less obvious.
In this audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac describes France’s trade deficit for 2023 main drivers. In addition to a deficit linked to imports of hydrocarbons and a structural deficit reflecting the country’s de-industrialisation, it is also driven by France’s investment in the needs arising from the ecological and digital transition and the electrification of the car industry.
To achieve its climate goals, the European Union (EU) should cut by 90% its greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 (compared to 1990 levels), according to a recent recommendation by the European Commission. This means rapidly increasing investment in renewable energies, electricity grids, transport infrastructure and thermal renovation of buildings. The result is a substantial financial burden (estimated at between 58 and 66 billion euros per year in France), but also a heightened quest for technological and human resources. For its ecological transition, the Old Continent is looking for computer scientists, civil engineers, electromechanics, building and public works managers, plasterers, electricians, roofers and more.
