A priori, rising inflation and inflation expectations, reflecting robust growth in demand and economic activity, should boost household spending by reducing real interest rates. Today’s situation is different. In many advanced economies, inflation is exceptionally high and to a considerable degree explained by negative supply shocks. In the EU and the euro area, household confidence recorded a big drop in March. Although unemployment expectations have increased, the main reason seems to be concern about high and rising inflation. Eurozone consumer confidence measures provide information about spending up to three quarters into the future. Given their recent decline, one should expect below-average consumer spending growth over the coming months
Eurostat’s flash estimate puts eurozone inflation for March at 7.5% y/y, representing another very substantial increase (up 1.6 points on the February figure). Inflation continues to be driven mainly by energy prices – the energy component contributed 4.9 percentage points to this figure, thus explaining 65% of the total – but the other components (food, manufactured goods, services) are also seeing increases and each contributed around one point. Thus, inflation is getting more widespread and all eurozone countries have been affected by its recent acceleration, albeit to varying degrees.
The ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) at Spanish specialised credit institutions (consumer credit, mortgages, leasing and factoring[1]) hit 6.9% in January 2022, its highest January level since 2016. Conversely, the NPL ratio for commercial banks, savings banks and cooperative banks[2] stabilised at 4.2%, its lowest level since March 2009.The increase in the NPL ratio of specialised credit institutions was due to a faster rise in the outstanding amounts of NPLs than in total loans (8.7% and 2.0% respectively between January 2021 and January 2022). Meanwhile, the fall in the outstanding amounts of NPLs at the banks, that began in 2014, has continued, against a background of stable total loans (-5.5% and -0.2% respectively between January 2021 and January 2022)
In France, the year 2021 ended with the highest employment rate since the 1970s, the lowest jobless rate since 2008, and a record number of job creations since the Second World War. Half of the labour market’s dynamic momentum can be attributed to the rebound in job creations in the sectors hit hardest by the Covid-19 crisis (notably catering and temporary employment services). The pandemic has also bolstered employment in healthcare and education. Yet the private market sector still bears the marks of the health crisis: employment is 1.3% below the level that it would have reached had the growth rates observed in 2017-19 continued through the end of 2021 (using the same calculation method, real GDP growth is still lagging by 2.2%). The employment rate for the 15-64 age group rose to 67
French GDP growth remained positive in early 2022, as illustrated by the relatively stable INSEE’s survey results through February, in terms of households, businesses and employment. Inflation rose significantly in February, up 3.6% y/y, but it was held down by the stability of regulated gas prices and the cap on electricity prices, which rose only 4%. According to the INSEE’s most recent economic update, inflation would have hit 5.1% without these control mechanisms.
France has reported a structural deterioration in the trade balance for goods since 2015. In January 2022, the deficit swelled to a record high, at a cumulative 12-month total of EUR 73 bn according to the Bank of France’s balance of payments statistics (EUR 88 bn according to the definition used by the customs office1). The trend for the industrial goods deficit to swell has accelerated since 2020 with the decline in aeronautics exports since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. The deterioration observed since November 2021 is mainly due to higher oil prices.Yet the current account balance, which combines all of France’s foreign trade2, draws a different picture: the cumulative 12-month deficit was limited to EUR 23.4 bn in January
According to insolvencies and corporate margins figures, the situation of French companies has improved significantly between 2016 and 2021. Business insolvencies are down roughly 50%. According to our estimates, this has contributed to save 210,000 jobs over the period, including 170,000 jobs during the pandemic alone. Corporate margins have improved by 1.4pp during the last five years and taxation has decreased. Public finance support has been a key driver of this improvement, including through lower corporate and production taxes and, during the pandemic, higher subsidies to production. In 2022, this improvement should reverse partially, mainly because of higher inflation
Since its launch, the ECB’s asset purchase programme has had, through various transmission channels, a significant impact on financial markets, activity and inflation. In recent months, doubts about the positive effects of additional purchases and concerns about possible negative consequences have increased. Against this background, the ECB has cut the link between the timing of the end of net asset purchases and the rate lift-off. This is a welcome decision that increases the governing council’s optionality. The new staff macroeconomic projections remind us of the pervasive uncertainty we are facing. In such an environment, monetary policy can be nothing else than data-dependent.
Italy’s industrial output fell 3.4% month-on-month in January. There is now a high risk that GDP will contract again in Q1 because of the war in Ukraine and the impact of surging commodity prices on Italy’s economy. Italy is particularly dependent on Russian gas, with almost 45% of its imports coming from this country. Even if Rome is planning to carry out a drastic shift in its gas imports – sourcing gas from other countries like Algeria and Azerbaijan – and to increase its LNG consumption, these changes will take time to materialise.
Abundant job creations in the Eurozone helped bring down the unemployment rate to a historically low level in 2021, but this has also led to hiring difficulties and labour shortages. Labour shortages seem to be having the most restrictive impact in Germany (in all sectors), given the already low unemployment rate. They seem to be weakest in Italy where the job market is less dynamic, and this hierarchy was confirmed regardless of the sector. In France, labour market tensions are the highest in the construction, and comparatively less important in the manufacturing and services sectors. Production constraints due to labour shortages have reached a record high in the services sector, especially in Germany
First of all, we will pay particular attention to the extent of the upward revision of the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We expect major revisions given the latest developments and the most recent inflation figures, which continue to rise (headline inflation hit 5.8% y/y in February, according to the Eurostat flash estimate, and core inflation was 2.7% y/y).
The war in Ukraine influences the euro area economy through different channels: increased uncertainty, financial market volatility, reduced exports, higher prices for oil, gas and certain other commodities. Although the economic channels of transmission are clear, the size of the impact is not. Counterfactual analysis of last year’s jump in oil and gas prices provides a reference point but the geopolitical nature of the economic shock reduces the reliability of model-based estimates. Moreover, the other transmission channels should also have an impact on growth. Finally, there is a genuine concern that, the longer the crisis lasts, the bigger the economic consequences because eventually, months of elevated uncertainty would end up weighing heavily on household and business confidence.
Purchasing power is a major concern for French households, a hot topic that is currently acute. For the first time since 1989, inflation is expected to rise above the 3% threshold for most of the year 2022. Aggregate household revenue is growing at a dynamic pace, offsetting the observed inflation impact. Purchasing power has increased by 2.3% in 2021 and a slight gain at 0.2% is even possible in 2022. Strong job creations have bolstered the total disposable income of French households. Looking at the average compensation, purchasing power has increased by 1.1% in 2021, but is expected to contract by 0.6% in 2022
Health restrictions implemented in front of a new wave of the Covid 19 pandemic dominated by the Omicron variant seem to have had only a mild impact on growth in early 2022, and the gradual lifting of these restrictions bodes well for a rebound in growth. These disruptions occurred in the midst of a rather favourable environment.
Concerning the Italian economy, now that the presidential election is behind us, attention has focused again on the risks associated with surging inflation and the upcoming start of the normalisation process of ECB monetary policy. 10-year Italian government bond yields have risen by nearly 50 basis points since early February, and they could reach the 2% threshold very soon.
The number of contactless card payments[1] increased by 61% in France between 2019 and 2020, according to the latest figures from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The Covid-19 pandemic has encouraged the increasing use of this payment method, which respects social distancing measures. In addition, in order to increase the number of transactions eligible for contactless payments, the cap was raised from EUR30 to EUR50 per payment. As a result, nearly 60% of payments at point of sell of less than EUR50 were made by contactless bank cards in 2020, worth a total of EUR71 billion (from EUR38 billion in 2019) according to Groupement des Cartes Bancaires[2]. As a result, the share of total digital payments[3] made by non-contactless bank cards fell sharply
The issue of de-industrialisation is often raised in France. Indeed, manufacturing now represents only 13% of GDP and 12% of payrolls (against 19% and 15% respectively in 2000). Capacity in French industry peaked in the early 2000s, before experiencing multiple setbacks; in parallel, industrial employment fell, and the trade deficit widened. Production capacity has reduced further in recent years and is nearly 20% lower than it was in the early 2000s. Although order books are overall the same as in 2018, production capacity is nearly 6% lower, which may explain why French industry is struggling to keep up with demand. A rebuilding of production capacity would be possible
Investor behaviour is strongly influenced by stylised facts, i.e. the historical relationship between economic variables and financial markets. When Bund yields increase, the spread of certain sovereign issuers tends to widen. This positive correlation will be perpetuated when enough investors believe that the historical relationship continues to hold. This was again illustrated in recent weeks by the significant widening of certain sovereign spreads in reaction to the rise in Bund yields. It creates a challenge for governments, due to higher borrowing costs, but also for the ECB, because of its influence on monetary transmission. This explains the ECB’s insistence on the flexibility offered by the PEPP reinvestments.
As shown on our Pulse, the sharp increase in inflation has continued in January, with the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) up 6.1% y/y in January. Although the details of last month’s inflation have not yet been revealed, energy prices should remain, unsurprisingly, the main driver of higher consumer prices. The energy element of the HICP recorded a jump of 40.2% y/y in December 2021, whilst the sector’s production prices nearly doubled (+95.9% y/y) between December 2020 and December 2021.
Based on Christine Lagarde’s latest press conference, it is clear that the ECB’s Governing Council view on the inflation outlook has evolved quite significantly. Since the December meeting, upside risks to inflation have increased, raising unanimous concern within the Council. Financial markets interpreted this as a signal that the first rate hike might come earlier than previously expected and bond yields moved significantly higher. The ECB’s forward guidance, which can also be considered as a description of its reaction function, suggests a rule-based approach to setting interest rates with clear conditions in terms of inflation outlook and recent price developments. In reality, a lot of judgment will be used as well
Against the background of economic recovery (real year-on-year GDP growth of 14.4% in Q2 2021, followed by 3.9% in Q3 and 4.6% in Q4 according to Eurostat’s preliminary estimate), outstanding bank loans to non-financial companies (NFCs) and households continued to accelerate in the eurozone between May and December 2021. Although substantial comparison effects mean that the figure is still in negative territory, its impulse (measuring the variation in annual growth in outstanding loans over one year) improved to -0.6% in December 2021.
Although Germany is not the eurozone country experiencing the highest inflation rate, the trend is nevertheless uncomfortable. Consumer prices posted another hefty rise in January (+5.1% y/y, harmonised index), although this was less than in December 2021 (+5.7%). The end of positive base effects – caused by the end of the VAT rate cut in place in the second half of 2020 – did not therefore result in a marked fall in inflation.
Usually close, French and German inflations, measured on a comparable basis by Eurostat’s harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP), have diverged sharply since the beginning of 2021, with inflation on the other side of the Rhine largely exceeding that in France. In November 2021, the gap reached +2.6 percentage points compared with an average of +0.2 pp since 1991. This difference is, for a part, due to a VAT effect: the decrease in the German rates in the second half of 2020 initially pulled down German inflation but the return to their previous level reverted that trend in 2021. In January 2022, with the end of this VAT effect, German inflation fell back quite significantly (to 5.1% y/y according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, from 5.7% in December) but is still very high
Economic newsflow was particularly rich last week. The first important items, looking in the rear-view mirror, were the first growth estimates for Q4 2021 in France, Germany and Spain. Performances were mixed, between the 0.7% q/q contraction in Germany, further strong growth of 2% q/q in Spain and, between these two, growth of 0.7% q/q in France.
French industry is benefitting from helpful conditions. Production has been boosted by order books that have filled up since spring 2021 and by growing capacity to meet this demand. The INSEE January 2022 business survey showed that inventories of finished products had increased to nearly 84% of their normal level, something not seen since mid-2020. This phenomenon is particularly visible in intermediate goods sectors. In chemicals, plastics and packaging (the ‘wood and paper’ segment), the percentage of current inventories in proportion of a normal level has bounced back even though it remains below this normal level. In metals and electrical equipment, very high inventory levels reflect very strong activity
