Italy’s cyclical improvement continues. This is reflected in our pulse, with several indicators rising above their long-term average. This is especially true for indices pertaining to industrial activity. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to its highest level in 21 years.
Eurozone inflation rose markedly in Q1 2021 and seems to be extremely volatile. Core inflation, which is usually stable, has been moving in fits and starts.The rebound in goods prices largely explains the broad increase in inflation. Prices of tradeable services have also picked up, notably in the sectors that were hit hardest by the pandemic, such as transport. The recent acceleration in prices is being driven by temporary factors: changes in VAT rates, higher crude oil prices, and the revision of HICP weights. Inflation could continue to rise over the next few months.These temporary effects should dissipate at the beginning of next year. Thereafter, there seems to be very little risk of an inflationary surge in the Eurozone.
Our chart shows an improvement in the French economy over the last few months, compared to the previous three ones: the blue-shaded area is larger than the dotted area. However, the picture that emerges from the monthly changes in the component indicators is made less clear by their yo-yo movements.
The barometer improved in March, driven by the manufacturing sector, where growth continues to pick up strongly. According to the purchasing managers index (PMI), confidence in the Spanish manufacturing sector has increased to 56.9, the highest level in more than 14 years.
The pandemic continues to spread rapidly within the Eurozone member states, and many uncertainties remain. Yet the most recent economic data are encouraging. Far from claiming victory, these signals nonetheless raise expectations of an accelerated economic recovery as of H2 2021. The greatest hope lies in the successful rollout of vaccination campaigns among national populations. The authorities will remain at the bedside of an ailing Eurozone economy, ready to help through public policies while trying to avoid any tightening moves that might hamper the recovery process. In terms of monetary policy, for example, Christine Lagarde announced that the ECB would step up the pace of securities purchases, which means that financing conditions are being closely monitored.
After a difficult start of the year, business cycle indicators improved markedly in March on the hope that the worst of the Covid-19 crisis is behind us. GDP is projected to reach the pre-Covid-19 level by the end of 2022. Many of the government support measures will remain in place this year. Fiscal policy for 2022 will depend on the outcome of the general election in September. After a significant weakening of the Christian-Democrats in the polls, a coalition between Greens, social-democrats, and liberals cannot be excluded. The business sector has been severely weakened during the crisis, but this is unlikely to have long-term consequences.
Contrary to what we were led to expect in late 2020, the discovery of vaccines did not end the stop-and-go nature of the recovery. In early 2021, due to the emergence of variants and the slow pace of the vaccination campaign, the exit from the crisis continues to follow a jagged trajectory. The light at the end of the tunnel seemed to be getting closer (Q4 2020 GDP did not decline as sharply as feared; a technical recession was apparently avoided in Q1 2021, with feeble but positive growth) but now it is fading again (the rebound has been pushed back until Q3, with Q2 growth verging on zero, and it could even slip into negative territory)
In 2020, real GDP fell by 8.9%, with almost 2.5 million of full-time equivalent jobs lost. The decline in consumption was the main driver of the recession, accounting for three fourths of the economic downturn. Stagnating incomes and the lack of confidence increased households’ propensity to save. The services sector was the most severely affected by the crisis, with value added declining by 8.1%, while manufacturing benefitted from the moderate recovery of exports. The problems raised by the pandemic combined with -and worsened- structural issues that had been slowing down the country’s economic growth up to now. In the years to come it will be hard to implement a solid growth pattern without decisive interventions that would foster innovation and productivity.
Economic growth remains extremely fragile in early 2021. In addition to the Covid-19 pandemic, Spain was hit by Storm Filomena in early January, which has had a direct negative impact, notably on consumption: both automobile and retail sales plummeted this winter. We now expect GDP growth to be flat in Q1. Even so, the economy could rebound strongly either this spring or more certainly by summer, although we cannot completely rule out the downside risks associated with the UK variant and a possible fourth wave of the coronavirus in Spain. We are forecasting real GDP growth of 5.9% in 2021 and 5.6% in 2022, following a record contraction of 10.8% in 2020.
Thanks to healthy government finances and a light lockdown strategy, the Netherlands weathered the crisis better than the surrounding countries. Nevertheless, the economy was in a mild recession in Q1 2021. Economic sentiment indicators point to rapid recovery in the second half of the year. Despite the clear victory of the outgoing government at the general election in March, the formation of a new coalition is in turmoil. Doubt has increased whether Mark Rutte can lead his fourth government in succession. The main task of the coalition is to put a recovery programme on the rails.
The Belgian economy shrunk by 6.3% in 2020. This amounts to the biggest post-war decline on record. A better-than-expected fourth quarter pushed the final numbers up somewhat and will have a positive effect on the yearly growth rate for the whole of 2021, which we see at 3.7%. Consumption suffered during the second lockdown at year’s end and is expected to dip again in April, as the government reinstated shopping on appointment only and instructed schools to extend the Easter holiday break. Unemployment increased significantly but less than was feared and the long-anticipated wave of bankruptcies hasn’t quite materialised so far. Tough choices lie ahead for the multi-party government, which should also focus on reining in its budget deficit in the years to come.
Portugal was one of the European countries hit hardest by the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic this winter. The government reinstated a “strict” lockdown that drastically reduced the spread of the virus. A very gradual reopening plan was launched on 15 March and will end on 3 May. Hopes for a solid economic recovery hinge on the vaccination campaign currently underway, but like elsewhere in the European Union, it is progressing at a slow pace. The success of the UK vaccination programme nonetheless raises promising prospects for the recovery of Portugal’s tourism sector, which is highly dependent on British tourists. Real GDP could rebound by as much as 5-5.5% in 2021, after contracting by 7.6% in 2020.
After a second, particularly long and severe wave of Covid 19 in late 2020, Sweden has been dealing with a third wave of the pandemic since mid-February. Although the vaccination campaign is unfolding satisfactorily, the resurgence of the pandemic risks pushing back the expected profile of the recovery. Monetary and fiscal policy will remain accommodating as long as necessary.
With relatively few deaths and only a mild decline in GDP in 2020, Denmark has been fairly resilient in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. To counter a second wave of the virus, more restrictive health measures had to be introduced in early 2021, which will push back the timing of the recovery, albeit without jeopardising it. With its vaccination campaign unfolding smoothly and the extension of fiscal support measures, the country is well positioned to exit the crisis. To better control the krone’s peg to the euro, Denmark’s central bank has made major adjustments to its monetary policy.
In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic had a much smaller impact on the French labour market than on GDP. On an average annual basis, GDP growth plunged 8.2% while private payroll employment declined by only 1.7%. The unemployment rate even fell slightly compared to 2019 (-0.4 points on an average annual basis). Employment was buffered by emergency support measures, notably the massive use of job retention schemes, which is the main reason why the overall negative impact was so mild
The resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe has led to new health measures in most countries. Given this difficult situation, the eurozone economy sent some signs of improvement over the last three months, compared to the previous quarter...
In the northern European countries, the economic impact of the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 was one of the mildest in the European Union, with GDP contracting only about 3% in Sweden, Denmark and Finland, compared to a Eurozone average of more than 6%. To what extent has this enabled the economic agents of the Nordic countries to have greater confidence than their European neighbours? According to the latest European Commission surveys, the economic sentiment index picked up strongly in March 2021, a trend that can be seen in most of the European countries
The economic climate has slightly deteriorated in recent months according to the Pulse. The blue area in the chart shrank compared to the situation three months earlier. The main reason was the sharp fall in retail sales. This was partly due to the closure of non-essential shops since the middle of December...
The VVD (conservative free-market liberals) and D66 (social liberals) were the big winners at the general election held on 17 March, by gaining 35 and 23 seats, respectively. However, the CDA (Christian Democrats) lost heavily. The populist right won slightly as the losses at the PVV were compensated by a huge gain by the FvD, which had campaigned against the lockdown measures. The parties on the left suffered severe losses and tumbled from 37 seats in the old parliament to only 26. In particular, the losses of the Greens were surprising given the importance of environmental issues for the Dutch electorate. As the country has been going through the worst crisis since World War II, the formation of a new and stable government is highly desirable
Since dropping below 0% in 2015, the average deposit rate applied by Danish banks to the country’s non-financial companies (NFC) has continued to slide into negative territory (-0.47% in January 2021) as the banks recover the deposit facility rate applied by the Danmarks Nationalbank[1]. At the same time, the almost continuous increase in Danish NFC deposits outstanding was amplified in 2020 by public support measures to boost the liquidity of Danish companies during the health crisis. Similar measures were observed in the Eurozone member countries. The share of Danish NFC deposits with negative rates increased to 81.5% in October 2020
Proponents of debt cancellation programmes sometimes argue that public debt will never be paid off, but that is not the question. In France, public debt denominated in euros (or in euro-equivalent francs before 1999) has increased constantly throughout the post-war period, without anyone dreaming of cancelling it. The high growth and inflation rates of the Thirty Glorious Years worked their magic. Between 1945 and 1975, debt outstanding increased about 10-fold, with the franc’s depreciation bolstering the external component, while the debt ratio plunged from over 100% of GDP to less than 20%. In 2021, following a series of crises (the financial and euro crises, and then the Covid-19 crisis), debt has soared to peak levels again (117.8% of GDP according to European Commission estimates)
The financial cycle, as captured by bond and equity market developments is very much globally synchronised, but, at present, there is a business cycle desynchronization between the US and the euro area. Rising euro area government bond yields, on the back of higher US yields, cannot be considered as a sign of economic strength. Quite to the contrary, they come at a bad moment. One would expect, at a minimum, a very strong statement from the ECB’s Governing Council on 11 March on its decisiveness to act should yields continue to rise. Markets would of course prefer immediate action. After all, the tool –the PEPP- is available so one might as well step up its use.
We took away three key points from the detailed breakdown of the Q4 2020 quarterly accounts. First, households reported remarkable purchasing power gains in both Q4 2020 (+1.5% q/q, +1.9% y/y) and full-year 2020 (+0.6%), even though GDP contracted (-1.4% q/q, -4.9% y/y; -8.2% in annual average terms). The resilience of household purchasing power is largely due to emergency support measures...
Although our barometer generally improved in March, economic growth is set to remain weak in the first quarter of 2021. New car sales were still 40% lower in February 2021 than in February 2020, although the data can be volatile from a month to another...
Looking beyond the short-term economic shock, the Covid-19 pandemic and the exceptional health protection measures introduced to contain the virus raise many questions as to the lasting consequences of the crisis. The issue of zombie firms, which is far from new, has taken on a whole new dimension, as their weight in developed economies has progressively increased since the 1980s. Massive public interventions to tackle the effects of the pandemic, whether by governments – debt moratoriums, cancellations of employer social security contributions, widespread use of short-time working schemes, etc. – or by central banks – increase and prolongation of asset purchases schemes – could result in keeping non-viable companies afloat, raising fears of a zombification of economies.
