In February, the economic climate has slightly deteriorated compared to the previous month. Our proprietary business climate indicator for Germany - the unweighted sum of the Pulse’s components - deteriorated slightly, to - 0.35 in February compared with -0.1 in the previous month. Since April 2020, the climate indicator has been in negative territory...
As shown in our barometer, manufacturing activity has continued to strengthen at the beginning of the year. The manufacturing PMI index reached 55.1 in January, the best reading since March 2018. Italian industry is probably benefiting from activity in the US, which is stronger than in Europe...
While the first repayments of State-Guaranteed Loans should take place at the end of March 2021, the amounts granted reached a cumulative sum of EUR 132.2 bn as of 12 February 2021 according to the Banque de France. Since their introduction, the SGLs have benefited more broadly the branches most penalised by the COVID-19 pandemic. Unsurprisingly, the accommodation and food service activities, which are still subject to administrative closures, are thus among those that have made the most intensive use of SGLs[1] in terms of amounts granted and number of beneficiaries. Our graph illustrates the general observation that the greater the drop in value added in 2020, the greater the use of SGLs
Recently, several calls have been made for the ECB to cancel part of its government debt holdings. Such an operation would violate the EU Treaty. On economic grounds, it is unnecessary, given that the interest paid on the debt to the ECB flows back to governments in the form of dividends. It would actually entail a cost: higher inflation expectations and/or a higher inflation risk premium would cause an increase in bond yields. The extreme nature of the measure could also undermine confidence. In reality, the very low levels of interest rates imply that governments have a lot of time to bring their finances in better shape
A robust and lasting normalisation of the economic situation will depend on gaining full control over the Covid-19 pandemic and on the renewed confidence of economic agents. Yet the Eurozone economy is struggling to recover in the midst of persistent lockdown measures and health restrictions. After a robust economic rebound in late spring 2020, the recovery phase has virtually levelled off thereafter.
Elections polls point towards a breakthrough by the Socialist Party and the far right to the detriment of the centre-right Ciudadanos party. Although political risks continue to persist in Catalonia today, the economic downturn caused by the Covid-19 crisis could weaken the momentum for the pro-independence movement and increase support for the Central Government. The Covid-19 crisis has accentuated Catalonia’s dependence on the Central Administration and Europe more broadly.
The preliminary estimation for euro area inflation surprised to the upside, with annual core inflation reaching 1.4% in January. Monthly inflation was negative however, at -0.5%. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation data have become very noisy and hence more difficult to interpret. Survey data show rising input prices and lengthening of delivery times, which could exert some upward pressure on inflation. These factors should dissipate during the course of the year. Given the economic slack, any lasting pick-up in inflation should be a very gradual process.
The economic pulse for Germany highlights the dichotomy that characterises the economy at the moment. The lockdown announced in early November and drastically tightened in mid-December is heavily weighing on the household sector and services.
2020 closed with a quarter-on-quarter (q/q) fall in GDP of 1.3%, according to the first estimate of the Q4 national accounts published on Friday 29 January. This was a much smaller fall than expected (we had estimated -4% q/q, in line with INSEE and Banque de France estimates). The full year contraction in GDP was 8.3%. This good surprise came mainly from business and households’ investment and exports, which rose instead of falling as expected.
Italy is one of the rare European countries whose propagation of the epidemic is still under control at the end of January, although the situation is still very delicate. On top of these health uncertainties, political risk is also on the rise again.
Spain’s health situation is still alarming. The pandemic continues to spread, forcing the public authorities to tighten restrictive measures, notably in the Madrid and Valencia regions. Yet the most recent confidence indicators have shown a certain resilience in January, notably the European Commission economic sentiment index.
INSEE’s composite business climate index improved slightly in January, gaining 1 point to 92, whilst Markit’s Composite PMI saw a marked 3-point drop, to 47. These two surveys often move in opposite directions in the same month. Which should we believe this time around? We favour the INSEE index. In general terms it gives the more reliable signals. And in current circumstances its relatively positive message – given a still worrying health situation – also looks likely to be more accurate. In particular, it is in line with the stability of the Google Residential Mobility indicator for January compared to December (monthly averages). This indicator is one of the new arrivals helping with closer monitoring, in real time, of the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on economic activity
In the past, bank lending to companies and GDP have tended to move in unison, but with the Covid-19 crisis, these movements have become uncoupled in the eurozone. At a time when GDP growth has been contracting on a year-on-year basis – with a sharp contraction in Q2 2020 due to lockdown measures followed by an easing trend in Q3 after restrictions were lifted and a quarterly rebound – bank lending to the private sector has accelerated rapidly (+6.9% year-on-year in November 2020), buoyed by government measures to support corporate financing, like PGE state-backed loans in France, and the banks’ strong implication in lending.
In Europe, the Covid-19 crisis is far from over. Since the beginning of 2021, many EU member states have had to introduce new restrictions to try to curb the pandemic. Germany, Ireland and Portugal, for example, are still in lockdown, while several other countries, like France, Italy and Spain, have implemented curfews. Restrictions have been reintroduced just as vaccination campaigns are beginning to be rolled out in Europe and around the globe. Although vaccinations are our biggest source of hope, it will probably take considerable time to reach herd immunity...
Strong fiscal support is currently key to limit the impact of the coronavirus shock on growth and employment. But in the long term, the question of public finances control will be asked. In its November forecast, the European Commission predicts that Spain’s structural public deficit will widen to 7.2% of GDP in 2022. This would be the biggest deficit since 2010 – 2009 being a record high – and the largest within the Eurozone. Spain will not stabilise its primary structural deficit, which could surpass 5% of GDP by 2022. Nevertheless, the impact on public expenditures will be softened by low sovereign rates
The second wave of Covid-19 that swept Poland in Q4 2020 was more severe than the first wave in Q2 2020. In contrast, economic growth was not hit nearly as hard thanks to the resilience of industrial output and demand (exports and household consumption). The authorities’ stimulus measures combined with industry’s competitiveness – which was not undermined much by the pandemic – bolstered growth, and the trade surplus increased. Against the background, a somewhat weak zloty is more a choice than a by-product of deteriorated fundamentals. The European budget agreement, as Poland is one of the main beneficiaries of the Recovery Plan, should provide additional support for growth.
Economic growth experienced several short-lived boom-bust wild swings in 2020, amplified by trade openness and the severity of the second wave of Covid-19 in the fall. However, the recovery in the 3rd quarter proved strong. Industrial production and exports both performed well, boosted by a stable exchange rate (and substantial foreign currency reserves). In addition, thanks to very modest debt levels, the government was able to offer rapid and substantial support to the economy.
In force since 30 October 2019, tiering seeks to limit the cost of negative interest rates (-0.5%) for eurozone banks by excluding part of excess reserves from the charge[1]. This approach saved eurozone banks a charge of EUR 4.3 billion in December 2020, leaving a residual charge of EUR 9.8 billion. The cost of negative interest rates has nevertheless grown steadily since April 2020, and particularly in the second quarter of 2020, due to sharp increases in excess reserves. These increases result in part from the expansion of outstanding Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTRO III), the terms of which were temporarily relaxed (from June 2020 to June 2021) in response to the Covid-19 pandemic
The United Kingdom has since 1 January fully exited the European Union, and a free-trade agreement has been found, as has been customary with Brexit, at the last minute. While that is good news for the British and European economies, Brexit is still “hard” and will surely trigger substantial economic losses in the long term.
The resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic halted the Eurozone’s economic recovery. It looks like year-end 2020 will be harder than expected due to new social distancing measures and lockdown restrictions set up in most of the member states. Industrial output remains low compared to pre-crisis levels and companies in the tradeable services sector continue to be at the forefront of restrictions. As to the first half of 2021, uncertainty is still high. Faced with this environment, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce new monetary stimulus measures following its 10 December meeting as fiscal support measures are gradually reduced.
The second lockdown interrupted an already stalling recovery. However, the business climate is likely to improve soon on the expectation that several vaccines might soon be available. Inflation is currently in negative territory because of the VAT cut, but will soon turn positive again once the measure expires on 1 January 2021. Because of the second lockdown, the 2021 budget will show a larger deficit than assumed in September, EUR180 bn or 5.2% of GDP. In Q2, the household savings rate rose to 20.1%, a new historical high. Once the pandemic is over, the savings rate could drop considerably if consumers catch up on postponed purchases.
The huge recessionary shock in H1 was followed by an equally spectacular rebound of economic activity in Q3, with an 18.7% jump in real GDP, although it will remain short-lived. The recovery has turned out to be W-shaped: GDP is expected to fall again in Q4 because of lockdown measures reintroduced on 30 October to tackle the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic. However, the second V should be less pronounced than the first: the decline should be smaller because the lockdown measures are less stringent, and the rebound should also be smaller because restrictions will remain in place and the economy is weakened. There is still a long way to go, but the arrival of vaccines means that there is light at the end of the tunnel
Following an impressive decline in the first half of 2020, the Italian economy rebounded over the summer. Value added rose strongly in construction and manufacturing, while the recovery in the services sector was less substantial. Favourable indications also come from house prices invalidating the darkest scenario depicted at the beginning of the pandemic. To contain the second wave of infections, the Italian Government has taken restrictive measures, with negative effects on activity. The economy is expected to decline in Q4 again. This contraction should be less significant than in the first half of the year, with only a moderate impact on 2020 growth, while the carry- over in 2021 should be more sizeable.
Forecasts made at the start of the year will probably turn out to be accurate. Spain is set to be the Eurozone’s economy hardest hit by the Covid-19 epidemic. We forecast GDP to shrink by 11.8% in 2020 before rebounding by 7.0% in 2021. The social situation has worsened again this year, forcing the government to introduce new large-scale welfare benefits (e.g. minimum living income), which will be reinforced in 2021. Spain’s huge €140 billion stimulus plan will support the recovery, should raise the country’s potential growth and create jobs. But the structural budget deficit is widening
We expect the Belgian economy to lose 7.2% of its size this year, followed by a 3.8% increase next year. After a strong recovery in the third quarter, private consumption is expected to decline again at the end of this year, but not as much as during the first lockdown. So far, structural damages seem to have been mainly avoided, with bankruptcies close to their normal level and unemployment rates stable since the beginning of the year. Government support measures have no doubt played a crucial role in this but once these measures are discontinued, some long term scarring will take place.
