The Eurozone has still not reached its cyclical peak. The situation has continued to improve over the past three months and the recovery has now spread to all parts of the economy. After rising strongly since April 2020, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector levelled off at a very high level in June (63.1). Manufacturing PMI is still going strong, although the indicator suffered from a dip in the “new export orders” component, which slipped to 60.9 in June. Yet this level is still high compared to its long-term average.
The German economy is strongly rebounding according to our Pulse. The blue area, representing the situation in the past three months, has clearly expanded compared to that in the preceding three-month period (the area within the dashed line). The latest data confirm that the growth momentum is strengthening. In June, the IFO climate index reached 101.8 (2015=100), a highest since April 2018. Companies were notably more satisfied with their current business. The recovery is also broad-based with the climate index progressing in all sectors.
Our Pulse continues to show a significant improvement in France’s economic situation in recent months compared to the previous three months. For activity indicators, the blue area largely surpasses the area marked by the dotted line, whereas for the confidence surveys, it exceeds or is very close to the grey hendecagon that delineates the long-term average.
Despite a sharp increase in May (+1.98%), eurozone inflation continues to be driven by two components of the consumer price index (CPI) that are linked to energy prices. “Operation of personal transport equipment” was by far the biggest contributor to the rise in the CPI with a contribution of 0.87 percentage points (pp), or nearly half of headline inflation. This reflects the increase in pump prices. It is followed by “Electricity, natural gas and other fuels”, which contributed 0.43 pp to Eurozone headline inflation
One year after the introduction of State-Guaranteed Loans (SGLs), 39% of managers of the SMEs that took them out have indicated that they have made little or no use of the funds, whilst barely one-third stated that they had used the majority of their loan. This precautionary behaviour led companies to hoard all or part of their SGL in order to build up a liquidity reserve under favourable terms. Meanwhile, the share of managers who expect to repay their loans in full over several years has increased (41% in September 2020 to 56% in April 2021), whilst the proportion expecting to make at least partial repayment in 2021 has decreased (from 36% to 23% respectively)
Judging by the recent data, the acronym PEPP that was introduced last year when the ECB launched its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, could also be seen as a reference to the pandemic’s exceptional price pressures. The upcoming governing council meeting and the new staff projections are eagerly awaited. Whether PEPP will be prolonged beyond March 2022 ultimately depends on the inflation data. It seems likely that the ECB will postpone its decision until after the summer in order to have a better view of the inflation outlook.
The latest economic figures from Spain have shown so far a substantial gap between the very positive signals from opinion surveys and the hard data, particularly on consumption, where a significant rebound has yet to materialise.
Eurozone member states mobilised massive public resources in response to the Covid-19 emergency, providing support for households as well as companies facing a loss of business. As a result, the public debt ratio rose sharply in 2020 to 98% of GDP. Since there is still a big need for economic support in the first part of the year, the Eurozone debt ratio will probably cross the threshold of 100% of GDP in 2021. The ECB plans to continue purchasing assets as part of its Pandemic Emergency Purchasing Programme (PEPP) at least until March 2022, at a time when the Eurosystem currently holds nearly 30 percentage points of GDP in Eurozone public debt instruments. The first disbursements of the Next Generation EU recovery plan are slated for the second half of 2021
The economic shock caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in a sharp increase in banks’ cost of risk. This has been particularly steep for the Spanish, Italian and Portuguese banking systems, which are notably oriented towards retail banking and have relatively high levels of exposure to the sectors most affected by the pandemic. Moreover, the effects of the sanitary crisis on the cost of risk have been exacerbated by the forward-looking approach of the IFRS 9 impairment model for financial instruments, which has been in force since 1 January 2018. Under this accounting standard, it is not the defaults themselves that give rise to the recording of provisions for impairment, but the mere expectations of such defaults
In Sweden, the economy continued to rebound in the first quarter with GDP up 0.8% q/q, driven primarily by exports, inventory building and an upturn in household consumption. On a year-on-year basis, growth is about to swing into positive territory (-0.1% y/y in Q1 2021). Confidence surveys suggest that the recovery is only just beginning. According to the European Commission, the business climate in industry has surged over the past two months to a record high since the creation of the survey in 1996. It also improved strongly in services. Consumer confidence has also picked up, albeit not quite as robustly
The cyclical trough seems to be behind us in the Eurozone at a time when vaccination campaigns in the member states are accelerating. From a macroeconomic perspective, the catching-up dynamic seem to be stronger than expected by many analysts. Yet the general economic improvement masks important sector disparities. The Covid-19 crisis will have stronger and more lasting effects on certain sectors, like hotel and restaurant services. In the months ahead, there is a risk that more companies will go bankrupt, especially in the hardest hit sectors.
The Pulse for May shows that the economy is slowly recovering from the sharp downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Unlike in previous months, the recovery is no longer limited to manufacturing and construction, but is now broadening to services.
The Italian economy is continuing to improve, as shown in the latest gains in our Pulse. Industrial activity, which had already enjoyed a significant upturn over the winter, strengthened further this spring: the manufacturing PMI reached 60.7 in April, the best reading on record.
Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and the introduction of health protection measures, we have been stressing that only a swift and broad vaccination campaigns would allow economies to return to normal. This is what we are now seeing in most European countries.
Having been rising for several years now, non-financial company (NFC) sight deposits have been boosted to new record levels in the euro area under the influence of the health crisis and government measures to support company financing. Their outstanding amount reached EUR 2,591 bn for the euro area as a whole in March 2021 (of which 26% in France, 23% in Germany, 14% in Italy and 11% in Spain)
Our barometer shows a marked improvement in France’s economic situation in recent months compared to the three previous months. Yet the improvement is helped by a very favourable base effect. In April 2021, the base effect should be favourable again, despite another lockdown.
After disappointing Q1 GDP figures – which showed the economy contracting again, by 0.5% q/q – the second quarter should bring the start of the much-anticipated recovery in Spain. The improvement in the Covid-19 situation is continuing to have a knock-on effect on business and consumer confidence, which brightened again in April, as shown by our pulse.
The increase in supply side difficulties identified by INSEE’s economic surveys in April 2021 requires a closer look. It is to be hoped that it will not hold back a recovery that is only just beginning to take shape. The rise has been particularly noticeable in the industry sector and has mainly been blamed on procurement problems that significantly exceed average levels from past years. In the construction sector, a shortage of labour has been the main difficulty (as it was before the crisis) but procurement constraints have also increased sharply. In the services sector, supply side difficulties relate primarily to health protections measures. In this sector however, demand side problems are affecting a greater number of companies
Employment and the jobless rate are both expected to rise in 2021, but the size of these movements is very uncertain. The rise in employment is likely to be limited, while the upturn in the jobless rate risks being big. The France Relance recovery plan will surely help boost employment. Uncertainty over the size of its rebound is linked in part to the vigour of the economic recovery. Above all, employment recovery will be hampered by several headwinds: the lagged impact of the GDP plunge in 2020, the increase in corporate bankruptcies, persistent sector differences, the return to work of furloughed or short-time workers, and corporate efforts to restore productivity gains and margins. As to the unemployment rate, the dynamics of employment and the labour force are both uncertain
Growth in Central Europe looks set to accelerate in the 2nd quarter of 2021, after already a good performance in the 2nd half of 2020, as indicated by the capacity utilisation rate in the manufacturing sector. This highlights good resilience despite a shortage of chips in the automotive sector and a fairly severe 3rd wave of Covid in the 1st quarter of 2021. Improving business conditions in the industrial sector stem from the on-going recovery in demand, specifically for exports: this has already allowed economic activity in the Czech Republic and Slovakia to move above pre-Covid levels, whilst the Polish and Romanian economies have returned to around pre-crisis levels. This performance should allow the region’s GDP to recover its pre-Covid levels before the end of 2021 (growth of 4
The credit impulse declined sharply in the eurozone in March 2021, reflecting the fall in the annual growth of loan outstanding, although this resulted from a high base for comparison and was therefore widely expected. Moves by eurozone governments to introduce support measures for companies’ financing led to exceptionally strong growth in bank lending to non-financial corporations from March 2020 onwards.
The German statistical office Destatis estimates that economic activity shrank by 1.7% in Q1 2021 after robust growth in the second half of 2020 (8.5% in Q3 and 0.5% in Q4). This was largely due to the tightening of the Corona restrictions in mid-December, which has been a drag on private consumption.
Given the way outstanding amounts of equity and debt are valued[1] in national financial accounts[2], debt ratios calculated using these figures can give a distorted picture of the financial structure of non-financial companies. In contrast, capital increases and self-financing give a reliable approximation of changes in company capital. Our calculations suggest that French companies went into the pandemic in a strengthened financial position. Thus, the unprecedented increase in financial debt in 2020 (EUR 206 billion, with nearly EUR 130 billion in the form of government-guaranteed loans) was preceded, between 2015 and 2018, by a marked rise in capital, as the result of a significant increase in equity issues
Limiting global warming will require huge investments, which will partly have to come from the public sector. This could lead to a crowding-out effect. Higher public borrowing requirements could push up interest rates and weigh on private investments. In the near-term such a risk seems remote. On the contrary, there could be a crowding-in effect with a reduction in climate-related risk and positive second-round effects from green public investments stimulating private investments. To reduce the risk that financial markets would exclusively focus on the impact on public indebtedness, governments should communicate clearly on the nature of their investments, insisting that they should have a return which is a multiple of the borrowing cost.
Italy’s cyclical improvement continues. This is reflected in our pulse, with several indicators rising above their long-term average. This is especially true for indices pertaining to industrial activity. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector rose to its highest level in 21 years.
