EcoWeek

Back to pre-pandemic levels in (almost) all developed economies

Eco week 22-20// 16 May 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
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ECONOMIC PULSE  
MOBILITY: BACK TO PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS IN (ALMOST) ALL DEVELOPED ECONOMIES  
The downward trend in the weekly number of new cases of Covid-19 continued in most regions of the world. For the first time since mid-  
November 2021, the number of new cases for the week fell below the symbolic level of 4 million on average for a moving seven-day period.  
Some 3.6 million new cases were recorded between 5 and 11 May, a fall of 11% on the previous week (chart 1). On a regional basis, case numbers  
continued to fall drastically in Europe (-20%) and Asia (-17%), but rose in Africa (42%), North America (24%) and South America (10%). The sharp  
rise in Africa in recent weeks is linked to soaring cases in South Africa. Meanwhile, 66% of the world’s population has now received at least one  
dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (chart 2).  
Over the same period, visits to retail and leisure facilities remained strong in the developed economies. Germany and Japan saw a return to pre-  
pandemic levels. These two countries thus joined Belgium and the USA, which passed this mark two weeks ago (chart 3). However, visit numbers  
are still below pre-Covid levels in the other major economies (France, Italy, Spain and the UK) but are gradually getting back to them with France  
having the smallest gap to fill  
Lastly, the trend in the weekly proxy indicator of GDP remained positive in Japan, whilst it stabilised in France, Spain and Belgium. On the other  
hand, the beginning of a decline is emerging in Italy, whereas Germany, the UK and the USA saw a fairly marked drop (chart 3, black line).  
The OECD Tracker is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as  
uncertainty. The OECD calculates the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y) to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.  
Tarik Rharrab  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the  
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks  
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving  
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Africa  
600000  
Asia  
Europe  
South America  
North America  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (11 May 2022)  
1
1
1
1
1
00  
9
8
7
6
5
0
0
0
0
0
400000  
200000  
000000  
8
6
4
2
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
40  
3
2
0
0
10  
0
0
1/20  
08/20  
03/21  
10/21  
05/22  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (05/12/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (05/12/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-20// 16 May 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
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RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
United Kingdom  
30  
United States  
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
25  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
20  
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-5  
-10  
-
100  
-15  
France  
Germany  
2
0
30  
20  
25  
1
0
0
20  
0
20  
1
1
5
0
5
0
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
-10  
20  
30  
-40  
50  
60  
-
-
-
-
-
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-5  
-
-
-10  
-
-
-
100  
-70  
80  
-15  
-20  
-
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22 05/22  
Italy  
Spain  
2
0
0
40  
20  
0
30  
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
20  
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
10  
0
-10  
-20  
-30  
-
10  
20  
-
100  
-30  
-100  
Belgium  
Japan  
2
0
0
25  
20  
22  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
1
1
7
2
-
-
-
7
2
1
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
10  
20  
-
-
-
-
-
5
3
8
13  
10  
15  
20  
-30  
40  
-50  
-
100  
-25  
-18  
SOURCE: OECD (05/12/2022), GOOGLE (05/12/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-20// 16 May 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
2
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY  
Daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7-day moving average)  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)[RHS]  
United States  
United Kingdom  
Germany  
Spain  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
200000  
180000  
10  
0
1
0
0
1
60000  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-80  
-90  
140000  
1
1
20000  
00000  
-10  
-20  
8
0000  
60000  
0000  
-
30  
40  
4
-
20000  
0
-50  
France  
4
3
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
20  
300000  
250000  
200000  
150000  
100000  
50000  
0
20  
1
0
0
0
3
2
2
1
1
-
10  
20  
-20  
-
-40  
-30  
-
-
-
-
40  
50  
60  
70  
-
60  
80  
-
5
0000  
0
-100  
-80  
Italy  
2
1
1
1
1
1
00000  
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
00000  
20  
0
160000  
20  
1
1
1
40000  
20000  
00000  
80000  
0
-
20  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-40  
8
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-
60  
80  
-
-100  
Belgium  
Japan  
6
5
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
100000  
20  
9
8
7
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
1
0
0
0
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-
10  
20  
50000  
-
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-30  
40  
-50  
-
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (05/12/2022), GOOGLE (05/12/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
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