EcoWeek

Covid-19: New cases decline worldwide for second consecutive week

Eco week 22-15 // 11 April 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
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ECONOMIC PULSE  
COVID-19: NEW CASES DECLINE WORLDWIDE FOR SECOND CONSECUTIVE WEEK  
The Covid-19 pandemic slowed worldwide for the second consecutive week, with a significant 14% decline in the number of new cases reported  
between 31 March and 6 April compared to the previous week. New fact to notice: this improvement benefitted all regions (chart 1): South  
America and Africa (-27%), Asia (-20%), Europe (-11%) and North America (-5%). Meanwhile, vaccination campaigns continue to progress. To date,  
1
1.4 billion doses of the vaccine have been administered worldwide, bringing to 65% the share of the global population that has received at least  
one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.  
Retail and leisure footfall remains on an upward trend in Japan, and to a lesser extent, in Germany, and continues to decline in Spain, despite  
a slight upturn reported recently. In the other countries in our selection (France, Belgium, Italy, the United States and the UK), this indicator  
continues to level off (chart 3, blue line).  
Lastly, the OECD Weekly Tracker of GDP growth continues to rise in the United States, Japan and Italy. In France, Germany, Belgium, Spain and  
the UK, the slight decline reported recently still fits within the upward trend of the past several months (chart 3, black line). The OECD Tracker is  
based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The OECD  
calculates the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y) to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.  
Tarik Rharrab  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the  
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks  
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving  
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (5 April 2022)  
Change in pp between 5 April and 6 March 2022 [RHS]  
Change in pp between 1 and 30 March 2022 [RHS]  
Africa  
600000  
Asia  
Europe  
South America  
North America  
100  
90  
15  
1
1
1
1
8
7
6
0
0
0
400000  
200000  
000000  
1
5
0
0
50  
4
3
2
0
0
0
8
6
4
2
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
10  
0
0
1/20  
06/20  
11/20  
04/21  
09/21  
02/22  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: UNIVERSITE DE JOHNS-HOPKINS (07/04/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (04/07/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-15 // 11 April 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
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RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
United Kingdom  
40  
United States  
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
25  
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
30  
20  
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
1
0
0
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
-
10  
20  
-5  
-
-10  
-
100  
-30  
-15  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Germany  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
France  
2
0
0
30  
20  
30  
25  
20  
15  
10  
5
1
0
0
20  
-
-
10  
20  
-30  
40  
50  
60  
70  
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
-
-
-
0
-
-
-
-
0
-5  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
-
-
100  
-80  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Spain  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Italy  
2
0
0
40  
20  
30  
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
20  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-20  
-40  
10  
0
-60  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-
10  
20  
-80  
-
100  
-30  
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Japan  
2
0
25  
20  
15  
10  
5
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
1
0
0
0
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-
10  
20  
0
-
-5  
-
-
-
-
5
10  
15  
20  
-30  
40  
-50  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
100  
-25  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
SOURCE: OECD (07/04/2022), GOOGLE (07/04/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-15 // 11 April 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
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DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY  
Daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7-day moving average)  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)[RHS]  
United States  
United Kingdom  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
200000  
180000  
10  
0
1
0
0
1
60000  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-80  
-90  
140000  
1
1
20000  
00000  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
8
0000  
60000  
0000  
4
20000  
0
-50  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
France  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Germany  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
20  
300000  
250000  
200000  
150000  
100000  
50000  
0
20  
1
0
0
0
-
-
10  
20  
-20  
-40  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-
60  
80  
-
5
0000  
0
-100  
-80  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Italy  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Spain  
2
1
1
1
1
1
00000  
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
00000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
160000  
20  
1
1
1
40000  
20000  
00000  
80000  
0
-20  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-40  
8
6
4
2
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-
60  
80  
-
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Japan  
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
100000  
20  
9
8
7
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
1
0
0
5
4
3
2
1
0
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-
10  
20  
50000  
-
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-30  
40  
-50  
-
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
SOURCE: UNIVERSITE DE JOHNS-HOPKINS (07/04/2022), GOOGLE (07/04/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
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