The global manufacturing PMI has declined slightly in March after a brief and limited rebound in February. It is at its lowest level for this year. In the US however, the upward trend continues whereas the Eurozone saw a significant decline. Within the Eurozone, Ireland was an exception and the index has rebounded to its January level. Japan, Mexico, South Africa and in particular Brazil saw an improvement in March. China and Vietnam recorded significant declines.
The services PMI stands in stark contrast to what is happening in manufacturing. This shouldn’t come as a surprise considering that the former is far less exposed to the direct consequences of the war in Ukraine and the ensuing jump in commodity prices. Sentiment improved further in the US and was stable in the Eurozone. It is also significantly better in Japan, although it has not yet crossed the 50 mark.
Compared to the other data for manufacturing, the employment expectations were a relief in certain countries. At the global level they ticked higher and there was noticeable improvement in the US. Yet, in the Eurozone and in certain of its members, the deterioration was significant (France, Germany, Italy, Spain). The situation was stable in Japan and improved in Brazil and Mexico. Data in China were better whereas Vietnam recorded a significant deterioration.
The war in Ukraine and supply disruption due to rising new infections have caused a considerable drop in the assessment of new export orders.
The global PMI declined close to 3 points despite a surprising improvement in the US. The index plunged in the Eurozone -and even more so in France, Germany, Spain- and in China. Several other countries were also confronted with a worsening of the outlook for exports, illustrating the broad-based nature of the decline.
Global input prices’ assessment in manufacturing increased significantly and is back at its November level. The situation was stable in the US but Canada, the Eurozone and all of its members for which the survey data exist saw big and sometimes huge increases. This also applies to Brazil, Mexico and several Eastern European countries. Input prices increased in China and skyrocketed in Vietnam.
Global output prices in manufacturing continued to move higher in March, for the fourth month in a row. The vast majority of countries recorded higher output prices. Whilst jumping in Canada, they edged down in the US. The Eurozone and its members saw big increases. Brazil recorded a huge increase, as well as Poland and Vietnam.
Delivery times lengthened again, after improving in the two previous months at the global level. The US were again the exception but the Eurozone recorded a significant deterioration, albeit with considerable dispersion. Delivery times jumped in Germany and Spain. Outside the Eurozone, several countries saw a moderate lengthening but Eastern European countries were confronted with a significant deterioration. China, Indonesia and in particular Vietnam saw longer delivery times.
In services, input price inflation accelerated in most countries with a sizeable increase in the US and prices jumping higher in the Eurozone.
