Eco Week
Economic Pulse

Covid-19: A new variant has the world on edge

12/05/2021
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According to the latest data from Johns Hopkins University, 3.97 million new Covid-19 cases were reported worldwide between 25 November and 1 December, a 3.2% increase over the previous week. Increases were reported in Europe (+5.9%), Asia (+3.1%), South America (+3%) and Africa (+9.9%), where the sudden upturn in new cases is linked to the discovery of the new Omicron variant in South Africa. The new variant has now spread to 21 countries around the globe. North America, in contrast, reported a 6.1% decline in new cases (chart 1). To date, 8.07 billion doses of the vaccine have been administered globally, including 250 million booster shots, which brings to 55% the share of the global population that has received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine (chart 2).

Retail and leisure footfall continues to trend downwards in France, Belgium, Spain, Italy and Germany, despite the slight uptick observed recently, whereas trends have levelled off in the UK and in the US. The recent decline in the US can be attributed to the Thanksgiving holiday. Meanwhile Japan is maintaining its positive momentum as it continues to approach the pre-pandemic level (chart 3, blue line).

Lastly, the OECD Weekly Tracker of GDP growth continues to trend upwards in Spain, the United States, the UK and Japan. In France, the most recent data seem to reflect a slight downward inflection, while in Germany, Italy and Belgium, a rather sharp downward trend is taking shape (chart 3, black line). The OECD Tracker is based on Google Trends resulting from queries on consumption, the labour market, housing, industrial activity as well as uncertainty. The OECD calculates the tracker over a 2-year period (y/2y) to avoid the base effect of a comparison with 2020 data.

DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES (7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY
THE ECONOMISTS WHO PARTICIPATED IN THIS ARTICLE

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