EcoWeek

New Covid-19 cases stabilise in Europe and Asia

Eco week 22-13 // 28 March 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
9
ECONOMIC PULSE  
NEW COVID-19 CASES STABILISE IN EUROPE AND ASIA  
After a week of rises, figures for the Covid-19 pandemic have stabilised worldwide, albeit at a high level. 12 million new cases were recorded  
around the world in the week of 17-23 March, a figure similar to that in the previous week. However, the picture is uneven around the world, with  
figures falling in Africa (-41%), North America (-16%) and South America, whilst numbers merely stabilised in Europe and Asia (Chart 1). Some  
1
1
1 billion Covid-19 vaccine doses have been administered worldwide since vaccination campaigns began in the fourth quarter of 2020, including  
.6 billion booster doses. As a result, 64% of the world’s population has now received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine (Chart 2).  
As far as mobility is concerned, visits to retail and leisure facilities continued to increase in the USA, and rose even faster in Japan. In the UK,  
the indicator appears to have stabilised, whilst in France and Germany it dipped slightly, with more marked drops in Italy, Spain and Belgium  
(
Chart 3, blue line).  
Lastly, the trend in the weekly proxy indicator of GDP has remained resolutely positive in all the countries in our sample, with the exception of  
Japan, where there was a slight downturn (Chart 3, black line). This indicator is produced by the OECD on the basis of data from Google Trends  
for searches relating to consumption, the labour and property markets, industrial activity and uncertainty. The OECD calculates the indicator over  
a moving two-year period in order to avoid the comparison basis effect that would result from a comparison with 2020 data.  
Tarik Rharrab  
*
Google Mobility Reports show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. The baseline is the median value, for the corresponding day of the  
week, during the 5-week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020. A figure of negative 30% indicates that traffic was down 30% compared to a baseline. The reports show trends over several weeks  
with the most recent data representing approximately 2-3 days ago—this is how long it takes to produce the reports. In order to smooth the series, we use a seven-day moving  
average of the raw data in the Google Mobility Reports. Source: Google.  
DAILY CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES  
SHARE OF PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF VACCINE  
(
7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE)  
Share of people who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine (23 March 2022)  
Change in pp between 21 February to 23 March 2022 [RHS]  
Change in pp between 14 February to 16 March 2022 [RHS]  
Africa  
600000  
Asia  
Europe  
South America  
North America  
1
1
1
1
1
00  
15  
9
8
0
0
400000  
200000  
000000  
70  
1
5
0
0
6
5
4
3
0
0
0
0
8
6
4
2
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
1
0
0
0
1/20  
06/20  
11/20  
04/21  
09/21  
02/22  
CHART 1  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (03/24/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
CHART 2  
SOURCE: OUR WORLD IN DATA (03/24/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-13 // 28 March 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
0
RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY & OECD WEEKLY TRACKER  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)  
OECD Weekly tracker, y/2y GDP growth [RHS]  
United Kingdom  
25  
United States  
2
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
20  
15  
10  
5
2
1
1
5
0
0
5
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
50  
-
5
0
-10  
-5  
-10  
-15  
-15  
-20  
-25  
-
100  
-30  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Germany  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
France  
2
0
0
30  
20  
25  
20  
1
0
0
20  
1
5
-
-
10  
20  
-30  
40  
50  
60  
70  
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
10  
10  
5
0
-
-
-
0
-
-
-
-
-10  
-20  
-30  
-5  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
100  
-80  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Spain  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Italy  
2
0
0
40  
20  
30  
3
2
1
0
0
0
0
0
20  
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-20  
-40  
10  
-
-
-
0
-60  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-
10  
20  
-80  
-
-
100  
-30  
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Japan  
2
0
20  
20  
15  
10  
5
1
1
5
0
5
0
1
0
0
0
-
-
-
-
20  
40  
60  
80  
-
-
-
-
10  
20  
30  
40  
0
-5  
-5  
-10  
-10  
-15  
-20  
-
-
15  
20  
-
100  
-25  
-50  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
SOURCE: OECD (03/24/2022), GOOGLE (03/24/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
Eco week 22-13 // 28 March 2022  
economic-research.bnpparibas.com  
1
1
DAILY NEW CASES & RETAIL AND RECREATION MOBILITY  
Daily new confirmed cases of Covid-19 (7-day moving average)  
Retail and recreation mobility (7-day moving average, % from baseline*)[RHS]  
United States  
United Kingdom  
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
00000  
0
20  
200000  
180000  
10  
0
1
0
0
1
60000  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-50  
-60  
-70  
-80  
-90  
140000  
1
1
20000  
00000  
-10  
-20  
-30  
-40  
8
0000  
60000  
0000  
4
20000  
0
-50  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
France  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Germany  
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
50000  
00000  
20  
250000  
20  
1
0
0
0
2
1
1
00000  
50000  
00000  
-10  
-20  
-20  
-30  
-40  
-40  
-
60  
80  
-
50  
-60  
70  
-80  
5
0000  
-
5
0000  
-
0
-100  
0
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Italy  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Spain  
2
1
1
1
1
1
00000  
80000  
60000  
40000  
20000  
00000  
20  
0
160000  
20  
1
1
1
40000  
20000  
00000  
80000  
0
-20  
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-40  
8
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
6
4
2
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-
60  
80  
-
-100  
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Belgium  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
Japan  
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
20  
0
100000  
20  
9
8
7
6
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
1
0
0
5
4
3
2
1
-20  
-40  
-60  
-80  
-100  
-
10  
20  
50000  
-
4
3
2
1
0000  
0000  
0000  
0000  
0
-30  
40  
-50  
-
0
1/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
01/20 05/20 09/20 01/21 05/21 09/21 01/22  
SOURCE: JOHNS-HOPKINS UNIVERSITY (03/24/2022), GOOGLE (03/24/2022), BNP PARIBAS  
The bank  
for a changing  
world  
QUI SOMMES-NOUS ? Trois équipes d'économistes (économies OCDE, économies émergentes et risque pays, économie bancaire) forment la Direction des Etudes Economiques de BNP Paribas.
Ce site présente leurs analyses.
Le site contient 1811 articles et 362 vidéos