Our pulse indicators continue to send a positive signal: stability of the INSEE business and consumer confidence surveys in August, even a slight improvement in the composite PMI; a more important than expected fall in Q2 unemployment rate (-0.2 points, at 8.5%); a small but solid rebound in July consumer spending on goods (+0.4% m/m); a slight upward revision of the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth (+0.1 point, at 0.3% q/q), thus running at the same rate as in Q1. These signs of good performance of the French economy are noteworthy while uncertainties and worrying signals have been building up on the external front. In this context, even if the latest economic news is reassuring, risks on Q3 French growth remain on the downside.
Index France
