United States: economic indicators quarterly changes
According to January’s Beige Book published by the Federal Reserve (Fed), economic activity has remained relatively unchanged in all 12 districts since the previous report. However, activity is slowing in the manufacturing sector, despite the mitigation of disruptions in the supply chain.
The decline in net real disposable income, combined with higher borrowing costs, is expected to moderate future consumer spending. According to the Census Bureau, retail sales fell by a further 1.1% m/m in December (after having already fallen -1% in November following revision).
Inflation has continued to fall for several months (+6.4% year-on-year in December, compared to +7.1% in November) against a backdrop of a slowdown in growth. Although the slowdown in the price of goods continues, services excluding shelter prices continue to accelerate, which reflects the dynamics of wage-price spiral. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to raise its key rates before leaving them at a restrictive level.
The slowdown in the labour market is also continuing, with a steady loss of momentum in non-farm payrolls (223k in December compared to 256k in November). The unemployment rate has also fallen (-0.1 points, or 3.5% in December), highlighting that workforce shortages still exist.
According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow estimate, quarterly growth in US GDP could be 3.5% year-on-year in Q4 2022, slightly up compared to Q3 (3.2% year-on-year), driven mainly by the positive contribution from household consumption and investments in equipment.
According to the first estimate of US GDP, quarterly growth was 2.9% annualized rate in Q4, mainly driven by household consumption.
GDP growth q/q: actual, carry-over and forecastsFélix Berte
