We monitor uncertainty by means of different metrics and several have eased as of late. Starting top left and moving clockwise, the economic policy uncertainty index, which is based on media coverage, has declined although it remains at a high level. This is probably related to the (still to be signed) phase 1 trade agreement between the US and China and to hope that following the UK elections, there will not be a hard Brexit. Uncertainty of companies in Germany has declined as well. This is obviously a very welcome development, given the difficult situation that the manufacturing sector is in. The geopolitical risk index, again based on media coverage, has declined as well. Uncertainty based on individual share price performance is on a rising trend in the US, although the level remains low. It has been declining in the eurozone since the start of the year.
