In July, there was still divergence between the main OECD economies. Economic surveys showed signs of a more marked slowdown in Europe than in the United States, where various indicators (non-manufacturing ISM, household surveys) even improved.
At the same time, disinflation continued in the main economic zones, but with different degrees of progress: in the United States, this led the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rates unchanged in June, unlike the ECB. The momentum is different in the UK where inflation remains high, which should lead the BoE to continue tightening its monetary policy. In Japan, inflation is continuing to accelerate but still insufficiently (only being passed on to wages to a limited extent) for the BoJ to consider tightening.
Throughout the world, the labour market situation still seems favourable, particularly in the United States, which should encourage the Federal Reserve to resume its monetary tightening in July. Signs of a slowdown in terms of job creation are more noticeable in Europe: fewer jobs created in Germany and France, and job losses in the United Kingdom and Spain. However, this still relative deterioration has no impact on wage growth, which is actually accelerating, justifying the vigilance of the ECB and, above all, the BoE.
