Before the outbreak of war in the Middle East in late February, our 2026 forecasts for the major advanced economies pointed to higher growth and lower inflation. However, this new conflict in the Persian Gulf is a game-changer [...]
US growth remains robust, exhibiting strong momentum, but is still reliant on a narrow base – AI on the activity side and healthcare for jobs [...]
According to our forecasts, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East is likely to restrict GDP growth to 1.0% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027 (down from 1.6% for both years prior to the conflict) [...]
After two years of recession, German growth began to recover in 2025. We expect it to strengthen in 2026, driven by the ramp-up of investment plans [...]
Since rebounding in Q2 2025, French growth has been relatively robust. Things are not expected to have changed in Q1 2026, with growth supported in particular by precautionary spending [...]
Italy entered 2026 with moderate momentum, posting a real GDP growth of +0.3% q/q in Q4 2025. However, the economy faces increasing risks due to its reliance on LNG and its exposure to the Strait of Hormuz [...]
The Spanish economy is in a favourable long-term cycle, characterised by strong growth, underpinned by domestic demand [...]
Following a strong performance in 2025, the UK economy will suffer in 2026 as a result of its dependence on imported commodities, with little fiscal headroom to address the situation. GDP growth is expected to fall to 0.7% [...]
The improved health of the Japanese economy is evident. Consumer confidence and the Tankan business-conditions index hit post-COVID highs before the energy shock began. The shock, however, is expected to weigh on growth, which is projected at 0 [...]
Contributions of the various components of demand to quarterly growth (quarter-on-quarter, non-annualized). [...]
Economic and financial forecasts for major economies as of April 2026. [...]
