The Non-Manufacturing ISM fell markedly in September to 50.0 (-2.0pp). This result was due to a decline in business activity (49.9, -5.1pp) and new orders (50.4, -5.6pp) components. Manufacturing ISM improved to 49.1 (+0.4pp) in September, driven by output growth (51.0, +3.3pp). However, new orders contracted (48.9, -2.5pp), particularly those for export (43.0, -4.6pp). The rise in prices paid slowed for the third consecutive month (61.9, -1.8pp).
Household confidence: weak and declining. The Conference Board (CB) index, at 94.2 (-3.6 points), and the University of Michigan index (55.1, -3.1 points) weakened again in September. According to the CB, the decline resulted from worsening current conditions (125.4, down 7.0 points), with jobs being considered less plentiful. The Michigan publication highlighted the deterioration in the expectations index (down 4.2 points to 51.7).
Job growth remains sluggish. The ADP survey for September reported a -32k contraction in the private payroll (the third contraction in four months). The procyclical leisure sector posted its first decline (-19k) since February 2024. The August JOLTS survey highlighted a labour market that is both sluggish (hiring rate at 3.2%, the lowest since June 2024) and resilient (the proportion of layoffs stabilized at 1.1% for the third consecutive month).
The Fed, in ‘risk management’ mode, lowered its target range to +4.0% - +4.25% (-25bps) at the 16-17 September FOMC due to the weakening labour market. This first easing since December 2024 came despite inflation accelerating to +2.9% y/y in August (+0.2pp, Core CPI stable at +3.1% y/y). The median projection of FOMC members for PCE inflation was revised upwards (+0.2pp to +2.6% y/y in Q4 2026) in the Summary of Economic Projections for Q3.
Towards robust growth in Q3. Whether slightly below Q2, according to our forecast (0.7% q/q, after 0.9%), or steady according to the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now, growth appears resilient. It is being driven by strong retail sales figures in July and August, with a positive contribution from foreign trade. However, it is expected to slow from Q4 onwards (0.3%).
Completed on October 3, 2025.
Our nowcasts for Q3 2025 highlight resilient GDP growth in the Eurozone and France. In Italy and Germany, two economies that suffered a setback in Q2 after a very good Q1, we expect growth to strengthen in Q3 and more markedly in Q4 [...]
The recovery in PMI indices continues despite a decline in industry. In September 2025, the composite PMI reached its highest level since May 2024 (51.2), an improvement attributable to services (51.4) [...]
Rates on new investment loans (irf>5 years) to non-financial corporations in the Eurozone fell very slightly in July 2025 for the second consecutive month. At 3.58%, however, they remained close to their June 2025 level [...]
The decline in the IFO index in September does not impede the upward trend that began in early 2025. The relative weakness in September particularly affected services and retail trade [...]
In France, the improvement in certain sectors is not spreading to others. The composite business climate has been stable for five months, at 96 [...]
In September, the economic sentiment index remained below its long-term average, held back by industry with a production index still in negative territory (-17.4) and production forecasts declining (-0.9) [...]
In Spain, business confidence strengthened in September and remains well above its long-term average. In industry, the index remains in contraction territory but is improving (-4.7; +1.1 pts m/m) [...]
The composite PMI has been in expansionary territory for five months. However, it fell to 50.1 in September (-3.4 pts m/m), dragged down by the services PMI (50.8; -3.4 pts m/m), which had reached an 18-month high in August [...]
The Tankan survey reported an improvement in large Japonese manufacturing companies' sentiment (14) in Q3, including in the motor vehicles sector (10). The overall figure (all enterprises and all industries) remained stable (10) [...]
In the Chinese manufacturing sector, the official PMI has remained in contraction territory since April, but it improved to 49.8 in September. The PMI published by RatingDog (formerly Caixin) also improved (to 51.2 from 50.5 in August and 49 [...]
Pouvez-vous nous aider à améliorer le site en répondant à ce court questionnaire ?Toutes vos réponses sont anonymes et ne seront utilisées qu’à des fins d’amélioration.Temps estimé : 3 minutes
